Manhattan Beach · F · Hard · 19 Aug 1990
Monica Seles v Martina Navratilova
101–108 in points · Monica Seles won
Why it went the way it did
Martina Navratilova won 3.9 more points than Monica Seles relative to what the serve alone predicted. Monica Seles's biggest leaks: return execution −2.6, serve 1st execution −1.2, touch shot selection −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Monica Seles | Martina Navratilova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | −0.2 | −1.2 | −2.0 | +0.2 | +1.6 | −1.5 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +0.2 | +1.6 |
| Return | +0.2 | +2.3 | −2.6 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +2.1 | −2.2 | −0.5 |
| Forehand | +1.2 | +1.7 | +1.7 | +4.6 | +1.2 | +4.9 | +1.3 | +7.4 |
| Backhand | +1.1 | +1.7 | −0.7 | +2.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.9 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −2.3 | −3.1 |
| Net | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −1.1 | +1.0 | +0.3 | −0.5 | +0.8 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −0.9 | −0.2 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.5 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +1.5 | +3.8 | −2.9 | +2.4 | +2.0 | +8.8 | −4.4 | +6.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Monica Seles | Martina Navratilova | Net, Monica | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.9 | −1.5 | +0.6 | |
| 2 | −2.8 | +2.1 | −4.8 | |
| 3 | +6.1 | +5.8 | +0.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Monica Seles serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% 57% | 31% 67% | 45% 54% |
| 2 | 30% 50% | 19% 40% | 52% 43% |
| 3 | 34% 60% | 34% 47% | 32% 36% |
Set to set −0.25 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.66 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Martina Navratilova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 64% | – | 56% 50% |
| 2 | 50% 45% | 18% 75% | 32% 71% |
| 3 | 49% 55% | 12% 20% | 39% 44% |
Set to set −0.12 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Monica Seles
7.2 points left on the table across 257 shots 2.81 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH down the line ×5; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.79 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
Martina Navratilova
10.8 points left on the table across 269 shots 4.01 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×12; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.87 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.48 pts