Amelia Island · F · Clay · 14 Apr 1991
Gabriela Sabatini v Steffi Graf
92–80 in points · Gabriela Sabatini won
Why it went the way it did
Gabriela Sabatini won 5.4 more points than Steffi Graf relative to what the serve alone predicted. Steffi Graf's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −6.6, forehand execution −6.0, return execution −5.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Gabriela Sabatini | Steffi Graf | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.5 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.8 | −1.0 | −1.7 | +1.6 | +0.3 | −5.0 | −3.0 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +2.3 | +0.3 | +2.9 | +0.9 | +5.8 | −6.0 | +0.8 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | −0.9 | +3.5 | +3.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.1 |
| Slice | +1.1 | −4.9 | +2.5 | −1.3 | +3.2 | −6.6 | +0.8 | −2.7 |
| Net | +0.5 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −0.5 | +0.2 | +0.6 | −0.8 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −1.1 | +0.2 | −0.8 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +1.2 | +1.5 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +2.8 | −6.0 | +5.0 | +1.8 | +6.8 | −0.2 | −10.1 | −3.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Gabriela Sabatini | Steffi Graf | Net, Gabriela | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.0 | ±0.0 | +3.0 | |
| 2 | −1.2 | −3.6 | +2.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Gabriela Sabatini serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 53% | 29% 58% | 31% 46% |
| 2 | 36% 56% | 16% 57% | 48% 67% |
Set to set +0.36 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Steffi Graf serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% 39% | 7% 67% | 26% 55% |
| 2 | 63% 44% | 9% 75% | 28% 75% |
Set to set +0.40 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Gabriela Sabatini
11.2 points left on the table across 457 shots 2.44 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×26; BH down the line rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×19; BH down the line rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
Steffi Graf
8.9 points left on the table across 453 shots 1.97 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.86 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH inside-in ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×8; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.42 pts