RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 13 charted matches · 1988–1995

Gabriela Sabatini

Archetype: Chip returner · Slice-heavy

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 58.3% ±3.2 raw 56.3% · tour 56.3% · 892 points
Return points won 48.5% ±3.3 raw 46.2% · tour 43.7% · 966 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.07 ±0.21 better than 69% of WTA · raw +0.06
Shot selection −0.44 ±0.25 better than 13% of WTA · raw −0.46
Execution +0.70 ±0.72 better than 85% of WTA · raw +0.61
Tactical adaptability +0.01 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 13 matches
Adaptation speed −0.02 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 3.01 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 11% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 5,707 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Gabriela Sabatini goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 293 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 37% 47.7%±7.3 40.4%
BH crosscourt 20% 59.4%±9.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 16% 52.5%±10.1 43.3%
BH slice through the middle 13% 39.5%±10.6 34.4%
BH down the line 7% 52.1%±12.8 46.8%
BH slice down the line 4% 38.6%±14.2 31.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 251 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 42% 40.5%±7.2 44.9%
FH through the middle 27% 46.3%±8.8 41.3%
FH crosscourt 27% 54.4%±8.8 46.7%
FH down the line + approach 4% 61.5%±14.4 65.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side

position worth 53% to the average player · 213 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 48% 54.9%±7.4 52.9%
BH slice crosscourt 15% 46.9%±11.5 44.5%
BH through the middle 11% 49.9%±12.4 44.8%
BH slice crosscourt + approach 9% 46.2%±13.0 47.4%
BH down the line 9% 46.5%±13.1 55.6%
FH inside-out 5% 44.5%±14.9 56.8%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 194 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 47% 45.3%±7.8 46.4%
FH crosscourt 25% 46.9%±9.9 47.0%
FH through the middle 25% 37.2%±9.6 41.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −3 How much less varied Gabriela Sabatini's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 94 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 32% 35% 63% / 66%
Body 24% 22% 62% / 57%
T 44% 43% 62% / 68%

411 normal · 23 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 49% 64% / 66%
Body 17% 24% 65% / 56%
T 31% 27% 60% / 64%

344 normal · 71 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide32% 62.2%±6.2 n=138 47% ▲
Body24% 58.1%±7.0 n=104 9% ▼
T44% 54.9%±5.5 n=192 44%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.24).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide51% 56.2%±5.2 n=213 66% ▲
Body18% 60.2%±7.9 n=75 3% ▼
T31% 51.0%±6.6 n=127 31%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.18).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.35 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.3±5.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (325 repeats, 498 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 53 47% +3.3±9.0
1stAd courtT 72 42% +6.3±8.0
1stAd courtWide 166 38% +4.0±5.7
1stDeuce courtBody 84 52% +9.0±7.7
1stDeuce courtT 105 36% +3.9±6.8
1stDeuce courtWide 160 41% +7.1±5.9
2ndAd courtBody 51 55% −0.1±9.1
2ndAd courtT 36 61% +6.3±9.9
2ndAd courtWide 73 51% −3.0±8.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 39 50% −4.7±9.9
2ndDeuce courtT 21 56% +0.5±11.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 69 60% +6.0±8.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Gabriela Sabatini's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 4.1% · won 62% · +1.9±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 4.9% · won 59% · −0.8±11.0 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.5% · won 58% · −2.4±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 6.6% · won 52% · −8.5±10.4 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH slice through the middle, mid used 6.8% · won 52% · +3.5±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line, mid used 7.0% · won 49% · +0.9±10.6 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (ad court) → FH down the line, mid used 5.4% · won 48% · −0.1±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, mid used 8.2% · won 47% · −1.3±10.1 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 10.8% · won 45% · −2.8±9.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.4% · won 55% · +6.4±9.6 vs own baseline
  2. BH through the middle → FH down the line used 2.9% · won 54% · +5.3±10.1 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → BH through the middle used 2.2% · won 54% · +5.1±10.9 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.1% · won 51% · +2.6±8.4 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 3.2% · won 52% · +3.0±9.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Gabriela Sabatini wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 57% · +6.0±11.9 vs own baseline · +10.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steffi Graf (2/7), Manuela Maleeva Fragniere (6/6)
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.9% · won 57% · +5.7±11.7 vs own baseline · +20.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steffi Graf (11/16)
  3. FH through the middle → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 57% · +5.9±12.9 vs own baseline · +15.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steffi Graf (10/15)
  4. BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-out → BH slice crosscourt used 0.6% · won 57% · +5.9±12.9 vs own baseline · +28.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steffi Graf (9/14)
  5. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 1.0% · won 55% · +4.4±11.3 vs own baseline · +16.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steffi Graf (16/27)
  6. BH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 55% · +4.1±12.2 vs own baseline · ±0.0 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH slice to their backhand · rally+5.6327
FH to the middle · rally+2.4186
FH to their backhand · return+2.1184
FH to their forehand · rally+1.1292
T 1st serve · ad court+0.7127

Most exposed to

BH slice to their backhand · rally−4.6389
FH to their forehand · return−4.2158
BH slice to their forehand · rally−4.1146
BH slice to the middle · rally−2.0132
FH to their backhand · return−1.0120

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Daria Kasatkina, Tatjana Maria, Karolina Muchova, Yulia Putintseva, Petra Martic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Points at net23%
FH down the line43%
Avg rally length5.4
Chipped returns34%
Backhand slice47%
1st serve in68%
Wide serves · ad51%
T serves · deuce44%
Serve & volley3%
BH down the line21%
Run-around forehands7%
T serves · ad31%
Drop shots / shot0.5%
Through the middle24%
Wide serves · deuce32%
Point-ending shots17.2%
Unforced errors / shot6.4%
Forehand share46%
Deep returns15%

Plays most like

  1. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario 1988–2001 plan v
  2. Conchita Martinez 1993–2003 plan v
  3. Martina Hingis 1996–2007 plan v
  4. Francesca Schiavone 2006–2017 plan v
  5. Amelie Mauresmo 1999–2009 plan v
  6. Saisai Zheng 2014–2020 plan v
  7. Chris Evert 1979–1989 plan v
  8. Agnieszka Radwanska 2007–2018 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Francesca Schiavone 2006–2017
  2. Saisai Zheng 2014–2020
  3. Agnieszka Radwanska 2007–2018

Charted matches