US Open · R128 · Hard · 27 Aug 1991
Jimmy Connors v Patrick Mcenroe
181–168 in points · Jimmy Connors won
Why it went the way it did
Jimmy Connors won 7.5 more points than Patrick Mcenroe relative to what the serve alone predicted. Patrick Mcenroe's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.7, serve 1st shot selection −3.2, net execution −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jimmy Connors | Patrick Mcenroe | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.8 | −2.9 | +2.1 | −2.5 | −0.8 | −3.2 | +1.1 | −2.9 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −1.1 | −0.5 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | +2.8 | +1.1 |
| Return | −0.4 | −0.1 | +5.4 | +4.9 | −1.4 | +0.4 | +5.1 | +4.1 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.8 | −0.3 | +2.7 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +3.0 | +3.3 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.5 | +5.0 | +5.8 | +0.7 | +1.4 | −3.7 | −1.6 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −1.2 |
| Net | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −2.3 | −2.0 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −1.6 | +0.4 | −1.5 | −0.2 | −2.0 | +0.3 | −1.9 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −2.1 | −3.3 | +11.8 | +6.5 | −1.8 | −5.3 | +6.1 | −1.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Jimmy Connors | Patrick Mcenroe | Net, Jimmy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.4 | −1.6 | −0.8 | |
| 2 | +0.8 | +3.8 | −3.0 | |
| 3 | +0.2 | −0.9 | +1.1 | |
| 4 | +6.9 | −0.1 | +6.9 | |
| 5 | +1.0 | −2.2 | +3.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jimmy Connors serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 78% | 31% 56% | 38% 45% |
| 2 | 35% 71% | 24% 33% | 41% 55% |
| 3 | 27% 83% | 50% 18% | 23% 60% |
| 4 | 25% 80% | 40% 63% | 35% 86% |
| 5 | 40% 86% | 17% 83% | 43% 47% |
Set to set +1.51 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Patrick Mcenroe serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 71% | 15% 20% | 35% 67% |
| 2 | 47% 39% | 13% 60% | 39% 87% |
| 3 | 43% 46% | 17% 40% | 40% 50% |
| 4 | 38% 69% | 24% 63% | 38% 23% |
| 5 | 43% 69% | 22% 63% | 35% 46% |
Set to set −0.12 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jimmy Connors
17.6 points left on the table across 652 shots 2.69 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×15; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.76 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts
Patrick Mcenroe
16.9 points left on the table across 661 shots 2.56 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit FH through the middle + approach ×2; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.42 pts