Indian Wells Masters · F · Hard · 7 Mar 1993
Jim Courier v Wayne Ferreira
97–63 in points · Jim Courier won
Why it went the way it did
Jim Courier won 18.7 more points than Wayne Ferreira relative to what the serve alone predicted. Wayne Ferreira's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.4, backhand execution −4.3, return execution −4.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jim Courier | Wayne Ferreira | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −1.4 | −0.3 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.1 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.0 | +0.8 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.2 | −2.2 | −2.5 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −4.0 | −3.7 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +1.7 | +2.3 | +3.6 | −0.1 | +1.8 | −4.4 | −2.7 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −4.3 | −5.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.2 | +0.5 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −2.4 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +1.4 | +0.6 | −0.2 | −3.2 | −2.9 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.7 | +1.6 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −2.5 | +3.3 | +1.1 | +0.5 | −0.7 | −17.4 | −17.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Jim Courier | Wayne Ferreira | Net, Jim | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.9 | −4.5 | +2.6 | |
| 2 | +1.2 | −9.3 | +10.5 | |
| 3 | +1.8 | −3.8 | +5.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jim Courier serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 70% | 6% 100% | 35% 58% |
| 2 | 65% 91% | 6% 100% | 29% 100% |
| 3 | 65% 80% | 4% 0% | 30% 71% |
Set to set −0.16 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Wayne Ferreira serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 45% | 8% 50% | 46% 73% |
| 2 | 65% 50% | 4% 50% | 30% 57% |
| 3 | 38% 50% | 13% 50% | 50% 38% |
Set to set −2.58 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jim Courier
5.8 points left on the table across 241 shots 2.42 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Wayne Ferreira
6.3 points left on the table across 265 shots 2.39 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts