RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 14 charted matches · 1992–2003

Wayne Ferreira

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.0% ±3.5 raw 60.7% · tour 63.4% · 1,169 points
Return points won 38.4% ±3.7 raw 35.6% · tour 36.6% · 1,096 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.09 ±0.09 better than 81% of ATP · raw +0.09
Shot selection −0.17 ±0.19 better than 32% of ATP · raw −0.18
Execution −1.10 ±0.89 better than 22% of ATP · raw −1.13
Tactical adaptability −0.04 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 13 matches
Adaptation speed −0.02 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.60 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 49% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 5,389 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Wayne Ferreira goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 416 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 46.8%±6.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 15% 52.7%±9.0 43.7%
BH down the line 11% 38.3%±9.8 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 42.2%±10.7 42.5%
FH inside-in 6% 56.4%±12.0 54.7%
BH slice through the middle 6% 27.3%±11.1 35.1%
FH inside-out 5% 49.7%±12.8 51.8%
BH slice down the line 4% 32.6%±13.0 37.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 213 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 34% 42.0%±8.5 48.0%
BH through the middle 18% 36.9%±10.3 43.8%
BH down the line 16% 43.1%±11.1 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 43.6%±12.9 42.1%
FH inside-in 6% 54.1%±14.3 54.3%
FH inside-out 6% 54.8%±14.5 52.6%
BH slice through the middle 5% 38.8%±14.4 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 196 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 39.9%±8.2 46.6%
FH down the line 30% 44.8%±9.3 44.7%
FH through the middle 29% 32.0%±8.8 41.5%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 177 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 38% 51.6%±8.8 46.9%
BH through the middle 23% 41.0%±10.4 43.0%
BH slice through the middle 14% 30.7%±11.4 32.6%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 40.5%±13.6 40.9%
BH down the line 6% 52.8%±15.0 44.2%
FH inside-out 6% 51.1%±15.0 51.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +8 How much less varied Wayne Ferreira's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 120 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 43% 72% / 73%
Body 3% 0% 63% / 63%
T 50% 57% 73% / 75%

543 normal · 30 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 57% 61% 64% / 73%
Body 7% 6% 58% / 63%
T 36% 33% 68% / 72%

441 normal · 90 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 60.6%±4.7 n=266 49% ▲
Body3% 57.0%±11.6 n=19 0% ▼
T50% 61.8%±4.5 n=288 51%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.89).
Optimal mix: +0.1 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide58% 56.2%±4.4 n=308 52% ▼
Body7% 55.2%±10.1 n=35 0% ▼
T35% 58.5%±5.5 n=188 48% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.77).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.22 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.4±6.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (336 repeats, 740 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 22 39% +1.7±11.1
1stAd courtT 94 27% −1.1±6.6
1stAd courtWide 146 24% −3.3±5.3
1stDeuce courtBody 30 35% −1.7±10.1
1stDeuce courtT 111 24% −1.3±5.9
1stDeuce courtWide 157 26% −0.9±5.3
2ndAd courtBody 63 48% −1.2±8.5
2ndAd courtT 35 60% +10.4±10.0
2ndAd courtWide 136 45% −3.5±6.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 61 56% +6.7±8.6
2ndDeuce courtT 112 48% −1.9±6.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 63 54% +6.1±8.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Wayne Ferreira's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.8% · won 63% · −3.3±10.2 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.8% · won 60% · −7.0±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.9% · won 59% · −7.6±10.3 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 55% · −11.7±11.5 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.1% · won 56% · −10.1±10.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 5.4% · won 47% · +9.8±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.6% · won 46% · +9.0±10.6 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 9.1% · won 43% · +6.1±9.1 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.9% · won 46% · +9.2±11.7 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 5.8% · won 43% · +6.6±10.5 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH inside-in used 2.6% · won 52% · +5.7±11.7 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 50% · +3.7±10.8 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 50% · +3.7±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 4.5% · won 47% · +1.5±10.1 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → FH down the line used 3.2% · won 47% · +1.0±11.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Wayne Ferreira wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 51% · +5.5±12.4 vs own baseline · +11.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH inside-in used 0.7% · won 49% · +4.4±12.6 vs own baseline · −0.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. BH down the line → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.6% · won 49% · +4.3±12.9 vs own baseline · +9.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (4/6)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 48% · +3.2±12.4 vs own baseline · +3.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.9% · won 46% · +1.3±11.8 vs own baseline · +1.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (4/7)
  6. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.7% · won 44% · −1.3±12.3 vs own baseline · −2.5 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 2nd serve · deuce court+0.8127
Wide 2nd serve · ad court+0.3167
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.1266
FH to their backhand · return+0.1136
BH to their backhand · rally−0.1318

Most exposed to

Wide 2nd serve · ad court−1.6136
FH to their backhand · return−0.1126
FH to the middle · return±0.0124
BH to their backhand · serve +1+0.4136
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.7266

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Reilly Opelka, Nick Kyrgios, Arthur Rinderknech, Nicolas Jarry, Miomir Kecmanovic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

FH down the line36%
Wide serves · ad58%
Run-around forehands28%
T serves · deuce50%
Unforced errors / shot11.4%
Wide serves · deuce46%
Backhand slice25%
Serve & volley12%
BH down the line21%
Point-ending shots24.9%
Points at net11%
Avg rally length3.8
T serves · ad35%
Through the middle22%
Chipped returns10%
Forehand share49%
Drop shots / shot0.3%
1st serve in55%
Deep returns10%

Plays most like

  1. Nicolas Kiefer 1999–2008 plan v
  2. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002 plan v
  3. Gustavo Kuerten 1997–2007 plan v
  4. Sebastien Grosjean 1999–2005 plan v
  5. Ivan Ljubicic 2003–2011 plan v
  6. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023 plan v
  7. James Blake 2002–2011 plan v
  8. Flavio Cobolli 2022–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023
  2. Flavio Cobolli 2022–2026
  3. Marin Cilic 2009–2026

Charted matches