Roland Garros · SF · Clay · 5 Jun 1993
Sergi Bruguera v Andrei Medvedev
91–56 in points · Sergi Bruguera won
Why it went the way it did
Sergi Bruguera won 19.8 more points than Andrei Medvedev relative to what the serve alone predicted. Andrei Medvedev's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.3, forehand execution −3.4, net execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sergi Bruguera | Andrei Medvedev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −0.7 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −1.7 | −1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +1.0 |
| Return | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.9 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −1.5 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +2.3 | +5.1 | +7.6 | −0.4 | +3.4 | −3.4 | −0.4 |
| Backhand | +0.6 | +1.4 | +3.3 | +5.2 | +0.3 | +1.5 | −4.3 | −2.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.4 | +2.0 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −0.2 | −1.9 |
| Net | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | −1.8 | −1.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.2 | −1.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −1.1 |
| All shots | +1.0 | −0.1 | +10.0 | +10.9 | +0.5 | +3.8 | −13.2 | −9.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Sergi Bruguera | Andrei Medvedev | Net, Sergi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.2 | −3.6 | +8.8 | |
| 2 | +2.3 | −2.5 | +4.8 | |
| 3 | +3.4 | −2.8 | +6.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sergi Bruguera serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% 100% | – | 36% 60% |
| 2 | 54% 79% | 8% 100% | 38% 70% |
| 3 | 58% 71% | – | 42% 70% |
Set to set +1.55 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.87 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andrei Medvedev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 30% | 6% 0% | 35% 33% |
| 2 | 74% 59% | 3% 100% | 23% 56% |
| 3 | 62% 50% | 4% 0% | 35% 44% |
Set to set +2.24 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sergi Bruguera
7.7 points left on the table across 329 shots 2.33 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Andrei Medvedev
9.9 points left on the table across 336 shots 2.94 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.82 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts