RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 22 charted matches · 1990–1997

Sergi Bruguera

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.6% ±2.9 raw 60.7% · tour 63.4% · 2,049 points
Return points won 37.4% ±3.0 raw 37.3% · tour 36.6% · 2,055 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.01 ±0.08 better than 60% of ATP · raw +0.02
Shot selection −0.31 ±0.17 better than 22% of ATP · raw −0.31
Execution +0.28 ±0.45 better than 79% of ATP · raw +0.32
Tactical adaptability +0.15 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 22 matches
Adaptation speed +0.11 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.58 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 51% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 11,808 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Sergi Bruguera goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 821 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 46% 51.1%±4.1 47.6%
BH through the middle 18% 43.2%±6.3 43.7%
BH down the line 10% 49.3%±8.0 46.4%
FH inside-out 8% 64.4%±8.5 51.8%
FH inside-in 5% 52.4%±10.7 54.7%
BH slice crosscourt 4% 43.7%±10.9 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 4% 35.2%±10.7 35.1%
BH slice down the line 3% 26.5%±11.1 37.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 645 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 44% 52.5%±4.7 48.0%
BH through the middle 18% 42.4%±7.0 43.8%
BH down the line 12% 37.8%±8.1 46.5%
FH inside-out 6% 58.5%±10.6 52.6%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 50.8%±11.2 42.1%
FH inside-in 5% 61.7%±11.3 54.3%
BH slice down the line 4% 35.3%±12.0 35.8%
BH slice through the middle 3% 35.8%±12.2 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 463 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 35% 53.7%±6.1 46.6%
FH down the line 29% 43.8%±6.6 44.7%
FH through the middle 28% 43.2%±6.7 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 4% 32.3%±12.2 24.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 401 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 29% 48.9%±7.0 52.7%
FH down the line 26% 57.5%±7.3 51.5%
FH through the middle 16% 54.6%±8.9 47.0%
BH crosscourt 12% 60.9%±9.8 49.1%
BH through the middle 11% 50.6%±10.3 46.8%
FH down the line + approach 4% 80.3%±11.1 70.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +11 How much less varied Sergi Bruguera's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 199 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 55% 68% / 73%
Body 10% 8% 69% / 63%
T 42% 37% 67% / 75%

998 normal · 51 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 64% 72% ▲ 68% / 73%
Body 8% 6% 54% / 63%
T 28% 22% 70% / 72%

804 normal · 148 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 62.5%±3.5 n=501 61% ▲
Body10% 62.0%±6.8 n=107 0% ▼
T42% 60.5%±3.7 n=441 39% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.78).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide65% 60.6%±3.2 n=619 60% ▼
Body8% 53.4%±8.0 n=76 0% ▼
T27% 58.4%±4.8 n=257 40% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.23).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.35 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.2±3.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (894 repeats, 1,063 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 102 36% −1.3±6.9
1stAd courtT 186 28% −0.1±5.0
1stAd courtWide 297 31% +3.7±4.2
1stDeuce courtBody 106 29% −8.0±6.4
1stDeuce courtT 260 27% +2.0±4.3
1stDeuce courtWide 286 28% +1.0±4.2
2ndAd courtBody 84 52% +3.1±7.7
2ndAd courtT 52 49% −0.8±9.1
2ndAd courtWide 246 48% −0.7±4.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 166 52% +3.4±5.9
2ndDeuce courtT 122 55% +5.5±6.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 108 49% +0.8±7.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Sergi Bruguera's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 69% · +5.8±9.4 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH inside-out used 2.4% · won 69% · +5.1±9.1 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH inside-in used 2.1% · won 60% · −3.5±10.0 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 60% · −3.5±8.4 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 2.2% · won 59% · −4.7±9.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 2.8% · won 48% · +9.8±9.9 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.9% · won 43% · +5.7±7.6 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.4% · won 44% · +6.0±8.5 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 3.3% · won 44% · +6.0±9.4 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 8.1% · won 41% · +3.2±6.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 60% · +10.8±9.2 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 56% · +6.1±7.0 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → FH inside-in used 1.2% · won 58% · +8.3±10.3 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 1.1% · won 57% · +7.9±10.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 56% · +6.2±9.3 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Sergi Bruguera wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 57% · +6.8±6.4 vs own baseline · +9.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gustavo Kuerten (2/8), Stefan Edberg (2/7)
  2. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 58% · +7.9±10.7 vs own baseline · +9.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Cedric Pioline (5/9), Alberto Berasategui (5/7)
  3. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 60% · +10.3±12.2 vs own baseline · +14.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 61% · +10.8±12.4 vs own baseline · +30.4 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.0% · won 55% · +5.2±8.6 vs own baseline · +12.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (4/12), Gustavo Kuerten (4/8)
  6. BH down the line → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 59% · +9.0±12.1 vs own baseline · +22.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · serve +1+2.3266
T 2nd serve · deuce court+2.1214
FH to the middle · serve +1+2.0120
FH to their backhand · return +1+1.9131
FH to the middle · rally+1.6397

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · return−2.3178
BH slice to the middle · return−1.8197
Body 1st serve · ad court−1.7138
FH to their backhand · return +1−1.3193
Body 1st serve · deuce court−1.3143

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Tomas Machac, Andrey Rublev, Alexei Popyrin, Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · ad65%
Avg rally length4.8
Wide serves · deuce48%
Run-around forehands25%
Chipped returns20%
BH down the line22%
FH down the line32%
1st serve in63%
Points at net9%
Serve & volley1%
Backhand slice15%
Drop shots / shot1.0%
T serves · deuce42%
Through the middle22%
Forehand share49%
Point-ending shots16.7%
T serves · ad27%
Unforced errors / shot6.1%
Deep returns11%

Plays most like

  1. Alex Corretja 1995–2002 plan v
  2. Albert Costa 1996–2002 plan v
  3. Juan Carlos Ferrero 2000–2009 plan v
  4. Paul Henri Mathieu 2002–2016 plan v
  5. Andre Agassi 1988–2006 plan v
  6. Guillermo Coria 2002–2005 plan v
  7. Marcelo Rios 1995–2001 plan v
  8. Magnus Norman 2000–2001 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Paul Henri Mathieu 2002–2016
  2. Roberto Carballes Baena 2017–2024
  3. Tommy Robredo 2003–2022

Charted matches