US Open · F · Hard · 12 Sep 1993
Cedric Pioline v Pete Sampras
75–97 in points · Pete Sampras won
Why it went the way it did
Pete Sampras won 15.4 more points than Cedric Pioline relative to what the serve alone predicted. Cedric Pioline's biggest leaks: backhand execution −5.0, forehand execution −4.7, return execution −4.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Cedric Pioline | Pete Sampras | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.6 | −1.1 | −2.2 | −2.6 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | −0.9 | −1.2 | −1.9 | +0.2 | −0.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.2 | −0.4 | −4.6 | −5.3 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.1 | −2.4 |
| Forehand | −1.0 | +1.4 | −4.7 | −4.2 | −0.2 | +3.0 | −4.3 | −1.5 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | −1.3 | −5.0 | −6.6 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −1.5 | −2.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −0.6 | −2.4 | −0.2 | −1.0 | +0.5 | −0.6 |
| Net | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.3 | −1.7 | +0.3 | −0.5 | −1.9 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −1.5 | −4.6 | −17.8 | −23.9 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −6.6 | −8.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Cedric Pioline | Pete Sampras | Net, Cedric | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.7 | −0.8 | −4.8 | |
| 2 | −6.6 | −2.2 | −4.5 | |
| 3 | −11.6 | −5.5 | −6.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Cedric Pioline serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% 65% | – | 33% 60% |
| 2 | 70% 57% | – | 30% 50% |
| 3 | 62% 50% | – | 38% 47% |
Set to set −0.26 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pete Sampras serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 73% | 4% 100% | 50% 92% |
| 2 | 65% 76% | – | 35% 56% |
| 3 | 20% 75% | – | 80% 63% |
Set to set +0.22 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Cedric Pioline
10.2 points left on the table across 290 shots 3.53 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Pete Sampras
11.3 points left on the table across 304 shots 3.71 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×11; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts