ATP · Right-handed · 237 charted matches · 1990–2002
Pete Sampras
Archetype: Serve-and-volleyer · Net rusher
Against an average opponent
Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.
Value per 100 shots
Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 88,856 shots.
Shot expected value
The share of points Pete Sampras goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 4,482 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 38% | 44.6%±2.0 | 47.6% |
| BH through the middle | 14% | 41.8%±3.2 | 43.7% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 13% | 40.7%±3.3 | 42.5% |
| BH down the line | 9% | 42.1%±4.0 | 46.4% |
| FH inside-out | 7% | 51.9%±4.4 | 51.8% |
| BH slice through the middle | 5% | 33.5%±4.9 | 35.1% |
| FH inside-in | 4% | 49.7%±5.9 | 54.7% |
| BH slice down the line | 3% | 35.5%±5.9 | 37.1% |
Return +1: drive to your backhand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 3,355 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 35% | 44.4%±2.4 | 46.9% |
| BH through the middle | 18% | 44.6%±3.3 | 43.0% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 16% | 39.3%±3.4 | 40.9% |
| BH down the line | 10% | 43.4%±4.3 | 44.2% |
| BH slice through the middle | 7% | 39.7%±5.1 | 32.6% |
| FH inside-out | 4% | 51.5%±6.5 | 51.7% |
| BH slice down the line | 4% | 34.0%±6.3 | 33.3% |
| FH inside-in | 2% | 53.2%±8.2 | 53.6% |
Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 2,114 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 36% | 43.6%±2.9 | 48.0% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 14% | 42.2%±4.6 | 42.1% |
| BH through the middle | 12% | 40.0%±4.8 | 43.8% |
| BH down the line | 9% | 35.5%±5.6 | 46.5% |
| FH inside-out | 8% | 55.8%±5.9 | 52.6% |
| FH inside-in | 6% | 50.9%±6.8 | 54.3% |
| BH slice through the middle | 6% | 36.1%±6.5 | 35.1% |
| BH slice down the line | 4% | 33.5%±7.3 | 35.8% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 1,712 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 51% | 44.3%±2.7 | 46.6% |
| FH down the line | 23% | 38.3%±3.9 | 44.7% |
| FH through the middle | 16% | 35.2%±4.6 | 41.5% |
| FH down the line + approach | 5% | 66.8%±7.4 | 69.3% |
| FH slice through the middle | 1% | 21.4%±11.1 | 24.5% |
| FH volley crosscourt | 1% | 64.0%±13.3 | 62.0% |
| FH volley down the line | 1% | 51.0%±15.0 | 51.6% |
Serve under pressure
Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Pete Sampras's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 1196 break-point first serves.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 42% | 51% ▲ | 80% / 73% |
| Body | 6% | 5% | 67% / 63% |
| T | 52% | 44% ▼ | 85% / 75% |
11,081 normal · 275 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 41% | 52% ▲ | 80% / 73% |
| Body | 6% | 6% | 71% / 63% |
| T | 53% | 42% ▼ | 79% / 72% |
9,361 normal · 921 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 42% | 71.5%±1.1 n=4,799 | 55% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 65.9%±3.0 n=651 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 52% | 70.6%±1.0 n=5,906 | 45% ▼ |
Off equilibrium (p = 0.007): serve wide more. Gap 0.8 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 42% | 68.4%±1.2 n=4,330 | 53% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 67.8%±3.1 n=587 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 52% | 67.9%±1.0 n=5,365 | 47% ▼ |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.83).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.
Exploitability 0.32 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.
Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.9±1.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (10,481 repeats, 10,683 switches.)
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 717 | 35% | −1.8±2.9 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 2,132 | 26% | −2.1±1.6 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 3,415 | 28% | +0.8±1.3 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 950 | 35% | −1.6±2.5 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 3,282 | 27% | +2.0±1.3 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 2,651 | 24% | −3.4±1.4 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 1,222 | 48% | −1.9±2.3 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 543 | 50% | +0.8±3.4 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 2,656 | 47% | −1.0±1.6 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 1,893 | 48% | −0.7±1.9 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 1,938 | 51% | +1.0±1.9 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 919 | 49% | +0.7±2.7 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Pete Sampras's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- Wide serve (deuce court) → FH volley down the line used 2.4% · won 71% · −2.6±3.3 vs own baseline
- Wide serve (deuce court) → BH volley crosscourt used 3.3% · won 67% · −5.9±2.9 vs own baseline
- Wide serve (ad court) → BH volley down the line used 2.4% · won 59% · −14.3±3.5 vs own baseline
Return
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 2.5% · won 49% · +11.1±3.7 vs own baseline
- vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.1% · won 45% · +8.0±4.0 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, mid used 3.4% · won 43% · +5.1±3.1 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.2% · won 42% · +4.3±3.9 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 6% · −31.8±1.9 vs own baseline
Rally, consecutive own shots
- BH crosscourt → FH inside-in used 1.6% · won 52% · +6.3±5.6 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.9% · won 49% · +2.9±3.7 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 50% · +3.5±5.3 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.6% · won 48% · +1.7±5.5 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 2.3% · won 47% · +1.3±4.7 vs own baseline
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Pete Sampras wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- BH volley down the line → FH down the line → BH volley crosscourt used 0.2% · won 76% · +26.4±7.0 vs own baseline · +9.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Stefan Edberg (7/9), Andre Agassi (5/6)
- Wide serve → FH through the middle return, mid → BH volley crosscourt used 0.4% · won 66% · +16.5±6.2 vs own baseline · −3.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (2/8), Stefan Edberg (5/12)
- FH volley down the line → BH down the line → FH volley crosscourt used 0.2% · won 72% · +22.5±7.5 vs own baseline · −0.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jim Courier (5/6), Andre Agassi (12/15)
- FH volley down the line → BH lob through the middle → Smash crosscourt used 0.1% · won 79% · +29.3±8.3 vs own baseline · +8.5 vs tour on the same sequence
- Wide serve → FH through the middle return → FH volley down the line used 0.2% · won 73% · +22.9±8.2 vs own baseline · +12.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Todd Martin (5/7)
- BH volley crosscourt → BH down the line → FH volley crosscourt used 0.2% · won 70% · +20.4±8.1 vs own baseline · +1.8 vs tour on the same sequence
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | +8.8 | 395 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +4.4 | 1,187 |
| BH slice to their forehand · return | +4.2 | 600 |
| Smash to their forehand · rally | +3.5 | 349 |
| BH slice to their backhand · serve +1 | +3.4 | 256 |
Most exposed to
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | −3.8 | 457 |
| BH slice to their backhand · serve +1 | −3.3 | 416 |
| BH lob to their backhand · return +1 | −3.0 | 250 |
| BH slice to their forehand · serve +1 | −2.8 | 133 |
| BH volley to the middle · rally | −2.6 | 210 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Rafael Nadal, Casper Ruud, Carlos Alcaraz, Alex De Minaur, Dominic Thiem
Tactical fingerprint
Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.
| Serve & volley | 57% | |
| Point-ending shots | 34.3% | |
| T serves · ad | 52% | |
| Points at net | 23% | |
| Chipped returns | 32% | |
| T serves · deuce | 52% | |
| Run-around forehands | 26% | |
| Unforced errors / shot | 11.4% | |
| Backhand slice | 27% | |
| BH down the line | 22% | |
| FH down the line | 32% | |
| Wide serves · deuce | 42% | |
| 1st serve in | 59% | |
| Drop shots / shot | 0.3% | |
| Wide serves · ad | 42% | |
| Deep returns | 17% | |
| Through the middle | 18% | |
| Avg rally length | 3.0 | |
| Forehand share | 44% |
Plays most like
- Mark Philippoussis 1995–2003 plan v
- Todd Martin 1992–2001 plan v
- Boris Becker 1985–1999 plan v
- Malivai Washington 1992–1996 plan v
- Michael Stich 1990–1997 plan v
- Tim Henman 1995–2006 plan v
- Guy Forget 1991–1996 plan v
- Brad Gilbert 1987–1994 plan v
Closest from another era
- Gilles Muller 2005–2017
- Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2007–2022
- Ethan Quinn 2024–2026
Charted matches
- Pete Sampras v Andre Agassi W US Open F · Hard · 8 Sep 2002
- Pete Sampras v Sjeng Schalken W US Open SF · Hard · 7 Sep 2002
- Pete Sampras v Andy Roddick W US Open QF · Hard · 5 Sep 2002
- Greg Rusedski v Pete Sampras W US Open R32 · Hard · 2 Sep 2002
- Pete Sampras v Felix Mantilla L Rome Masters R64 · Clay · 7 May 2002
- Pete Sampras v Andre Agassi W Houston SF · Hard · 28 Apr 2002
- Pete Sampras v Andy Roddick L Houston F · Clay · 28 Apr 2002
- Pete Sampras v Fernando Gonzalez L Miami Masters R32 · Hard · 25 Mar 2002
- Pete Sampras v Lleyton Hewitt L Indian Wells Masters SF · Hard · 16 Mar 2002
- Pete Sampras v Marat Safin L Australian Open R16 · Hard · 21 Jan 2002
- Max Mirnyi v Pete Sampras L Stuttgart Masters QF · Hard · 19 Oct 2001
- Pete Sampras v Lleyton Hewitt L US Open F · Hard · 9 Sep 2001