Tour Finals · SF · Hard · 20 Nov 1993
Pete Sampras v Andrei Medvedev
55–27 in points · Pete Sampras won
Why it went the way it did
Pete Sampras won 14.5 more points than Andrei Medvedev relative to what the serve alone predicted. Andrei Medvedev's biggest leaks: net execution −2.4, forehand execution −1.2, return execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Pete Sampras | Andrei Medvedev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.5 | +2.0 | +2.7 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.2 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.4 | −1.6 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +1.1 | +0.7 |
| Return | +0.4 | −0.4 | +1.5 | +1.5 | −0.2 | +0.3 | −1.2 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.1 | +1.2 | +2.7 | −0.1 | +1.0 | −1.2 | −0.4 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.8 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −0.6 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.4 | −1.0 |
| Net | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +1.5 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −2.4 | −2.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 |
| Other | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +1.6 | +0.3 | +6.9 | +8.8 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −4.7 | −5.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Pete Sampras | Andrei Medvedev | Net, Pete | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.8 | −0.1 | +5.9 | |
| 2 | +3.0 | −5.7 | +8.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Pete Sampras serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 90% | – | 58% 79% |
| 2 | 27% 75% | – | 73% 82% |
Within sets +1.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andrei Medvedev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 64% | 4% 100% | 56% 53% |
| 2 | 50% 0% | 13% 50% | 38% 50% |
Within sets +0.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Pete Sampras
2.2 points left on the table across 103 shots 2.16 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Andrei Medvedev
3.6 points left on the table across 97 shots 3.73 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts