Tour Finals · F · Hard · 21 Nov 1993
Pete Sampras v Michael Stich
133–141 in points · Michael Stich won
Why it went the way it did
Michael Stich won 4.8 more points than Pete Sampras relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pete Sampras's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.9, slice shot selection −1.8, serve 1st execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Pete Sampras | Michael Stich | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | +2.1 | −1.7 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +1.1 | +4.3 | +5.0 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | −0.9 | −1.1 | −1.8 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +0.7 | +2.1 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.5 | −1.1 | −1.3 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.7 | +0.1 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +2.4 | −5.9 | −3.0 | −0.4 | +0.7 | −1.3 | −1.0 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.3 | −1.1 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −1.5 | −1.2 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.8 | +0.6 | −1.4 | −0.2 | −1.8 | −2.5 | −4.5 |
| Net | −0.5 | −0.1 | +1.8 | +1.2 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −1.5 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +0.2 | +0.9 | −7.7 | −6.6 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −1.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Pete Sampras | Michael Stich | Net, Pete | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.8 | −1.5 | −1.3 | |
| 2 | +0.7 | −3.7 | +4.5 | |
| 3 | −2.4 | −0.3 | −2.1 | |
| 4 | −2.2 | +3.8 | −5.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Pete Sampras serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 44% | 12% 80% | 50% 67% |
| 2 | 37% 86% | 21% 50% | 42% 75% |
| 3 | 40% 71% | 14% 80% | 46% 63% |
| 4 | 65% 65% | 8% 50% | 27% 29% |
Set to set −0.26 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Michael Stich serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 62% | 8% 67% | 40% 63% |
| 2 | 23% 67% | 23% 50% | 54% 50% |
| 3 | 42% 88% | 24% 78% | 34% 54% |
| 4 | 43% 90% | 4% 0% | 52% 75% |
Set to set +0.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Pete Sampras
11.3 points left on the table across 308 shots 3.66 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.73 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×4; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
Michael Stich
12.5 points left on the table across 310 shots 4.05 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.75 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts