Tour Finals · SF · Hard · 19 Nov 1994
Sergi Bruguera v Boris Becker
97–108 in points · Boris Becker won
Why it went the way it did
Boris Becker won 4.3 more points than Sergi Bruguera relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sergi Bruguera's biggest leaks: return execution −2.9, serve 1st shot selection −1.8, slice shot selection −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sergi Bruguera | Boris Becker | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | −1.8 | −1.0 | −2.4 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +0.8 | +2.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.8 | +1.9 | +1.1 | +0.1 | +1.7 | −3.0 | −1.2 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.5 | −2.9 | −2.3 | +0.2 | +0.8 | −2.1 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +1.7 | +0.5 | +1.7 | +0.1 | +1.1 | −2.0 | −0.8 |
| Backhand | −1.4 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −1.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −0.8 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.6 | +0.3 | −1.5 | +0.7 | −0.7 | −1.1 | −1.1 |
| Net | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.4 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| All shots | −2.2 | −2.5 | −1.8 | −6.5 | +1.4 | +5.1 | −8.8 | −2.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Sergi Bruguera | Boris Becker | Net, Sergi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.8 | −4.7 | +2.9 | |
| 2 | −1.2 | +0.8 | −2.0 | |
| 3 | −3.5 | +1.7 | −5.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sergi Bruguera serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 83% | – | 48% 62% |
| 2 | 42% 50% | 3% 100% | 55% 62% |
| 3 | 56% 56% | – | 44% 43% |
Set to set −0.65 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.24 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Boris Becker serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% 63% | 4% 100% | 45% 67% |
| 2 | 47% 61% | 5% 100% | 47% 61% |
| 3 | 50% 91% | 14% 100% | 36% 50% |
Set to set +0.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sergi Bruguera
11.0 points left on the table across 258 shots 4.27 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
Boris Becker
10.2 points left on the table across 264 shots 3.87 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle + approach ×2; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×2; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts