Australian Open · QF · Hard · 24 Jan 1995
Jim Courier v Pete Sampras
159–176 in points · Pete Sampras won
Why it went the way it did
Pete Sampras won 11.0 more points than Jim Courier relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jim Courier's biggest leaks: serve 1st shot selection −3.6, slice shot selection −2.8, touch shot selection −2.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jim Courier | Pete Sampras | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.7 | −3.6 | +2.2 | −2.1 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +1.8 | +3.4 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −1.3 | +2.5 | +1.3 | +0.1 | −1.3 | +3.6 | +2.4 |
| Return | +0.5 | −0.3 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +0.3 | −1.1 | +7.6 | +6.9 |
| Forehand | +1.1 | +7.8 | +3.0 | +11.9 | +1.1 | +10.1 | −5.6 | +5.6 |
| Backhand | +1.2 | +0.6 | +4.1 | +6.0 | +1.2 | +2.4 | +3.8 | +7.4 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −2.8 | −1.0 | −3.5 | +0.4 | −6.1 | +0.3 | −5.4 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.3 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +3.9 | +4.7 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −2.8 | +1.7 | −1.3 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −0.9 |
| All shots | +2.6 | −2.2 | +12.7 | +13.1 | +4.5 | +4.3 | +15.1 | +24.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Jim Courier | Pete Sampras | Net, Jim | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.7 | +6.5 | −0.8 | |
| 2 | +5.3 | +2.5 | +2.8 | |
| 3 | +2.3 | +5.6 | −3.3 | |
| 4 | +0.9 | +3.5 | −2.6 | |
| 5 | −1.2 | +5.9 | −7.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jim Courier serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 80% | 21% 56% | 31% 77% |
| 2 | 45% 89% | 17% 57% | 38% 63% |
| 3 | 50% 54% | 12% 33% | 38% 70% |
| 4 | 45% 59% | 11% 50% | 45% 59% |
| 5 | 50% 60% | 20% 67% | 30% 56% |
Set to set −0.18 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pete Sampras serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 68% | – | 47% 88% |
| 2 | 46% 73% | 2% 0% | 52% 64% |
| 3 | 46% 55% | – | 54% 85% |
| 4 | 46% 58% | – | 54% 71% |
| 5 | 77% 88% | 5% 100% | 18% 100% |
Set to set +0.20 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jim Courier
14.9 points left on the table across 709 shots 2.10 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×37; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.04 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.68 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH down the line ×15; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
Pete Sampras
16.1 points left on the table across 729 shots 2.21 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×18; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.70 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.67 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts