Rome Masters · F · Clay · 22 May 1995
Sergi Bruguera v Thomas Muster
124–139 in points · Thomas Muster won
Why it went the way it did
Thomas Muster won 7.0 more points than Sergi Bruguera relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sergi Bruguera's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.2, serve 1st shot selection −1.2, touch execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sergi Bruguera | Thomas Muster | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −1.2 | +0.2 | −1.1 | −0.5 | −1.3 | +2.6 | +0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.7 |
| Return | −0.5 | +0.6 | +5.5 | +5.6 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +3.3 | +4.9 |
| Forehand | +4.0 | +5.8 | +3.3 | +13.1 | +4.2 | +9.8 | +6.9 | +20.9 |
| Backhand | +0.8 | +2.4 | +7.9 | +11.0 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +4.0 | +5.6 |
| Slice | −0.5 | −5.2 | −0.5 | −6.2 | +0.2 | −5.1 | +1.6 | −3.2 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.6 | +1.5 | +1.8 | +0.6 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +1.6 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.8 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −2.5 | +1.4 | −1.1 |
| All shots | +3.1 | +2.2 | +16.5 | +21.8 | +5.1 | +4.1 | +19.5 | +28.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Sergi Bruguera | Thomas Muster | Net, Sergi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +10.5 | +5.1 | +5.4 | |
| 2 | +6.9 | +9.5 | −2.6 | |
| 3 | +1.6 | +7.8 | −6.2 | |
| 4 | +2.7 | +6.3 | −3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sergi Bruguera serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72% 67% | 12% 67% | 16% 50% |
| 2 | 52% 60% | 15% 86% | 33% 44% |
| 3 | 70% 29% | 10% 0% | 20% 100% |
| 4 | 64% 48% | 18% 50% | 18% 50% |
Set to set +0.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Thomas Muster serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 53% | 23% 33% | 38% 53% |
| 2 | 46% 64% | 13% 67% | 42% 65% |
| 3 | 42% 63% | 26% 60% | 32% 83% |
| 4 | 42% 45% | 27% 43% | 31% 88% |
Set to set +0.28 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sergi Bruguera
15.5 points left on the table across 869 shots 1.78 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×24; BH crosscourt rates higher · 1.00 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×11; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.70 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH down the line ×40; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
Thomas Muster
16.4 points left on the table across 870 shots 1.89 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.76 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.76 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×8; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.69 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.67 pts