RallyIQ

Washington · SF · Hard · 22 Jul 1995

Patrick Rafter v Stefan Edberg

99–112 in points · Patrick Rafter won

Why it went the way it did

Stefan Edberg won 8.2 more points than Patrick Rafter relative to what the serve alone predicted. Patrick Rafter's biggest leaks: return execution −4.1, forehand execution −3.8, serve 1st execution −2.9.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotPatrick RafterStefan Edberg
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st −0.5 +2.5 −2.9 −0.9 +0.2 +2.2 −1.6 +0.9
Serve 2nd ±0.0 +0.3 −2.2 −2.0 −0.1 +0.3 −1.5 −1.3
Return +0.9 +0.6 −4.1 −2.6 +0.6 +0.6 −0.2 +1.0
Forehand +0.1 +0.4 −3.8 −3.3 +0.1 +1.1 +0.3 +1.5
Backhand +0.1 +0.4 +0.9 +1.5 −0.1 ±0.0 +1.6 +1.5
Slice +0.2 −0.8 +1.1 +0.5 +0.3 −0.8 −1.1 −1.7
Net +1.1 −0.6 +1.2 +1.7 +1.2 −0.3 +0.2 +1.0
Touch −0.2 −0.7 ±0.0 −1.0 −0.1 −0.4 −0.3 −0.8
All shots +1.7+2.0 −9.9−6.2 +2.0+2.6 −2.6+2.1

Set by set

SetPatrick RafterStefan EdbergNet, Patrick
1−5.2+0.3 −5.5
2+0.8−1.6 +2.3
3−1.8+3.3 −5.1

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Patrick Rafter serving

SetWideBodyT
1 39% 43% 17% 50% 44% 69%
2 44% 80% 12% 75% 44% 67%
3 43% 50% 14% 100% 43% 38%

Set to set −0.47 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +1.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Stefan Edberg serving

SetWideBodyT
1 57% 75% 18% 80% 25% 57%
2 48% 75% 3% 0% 48% 63%
3 57% 69% 4% 100% 39% 64%

Set to set −1.22 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Patrick Rafter

8.2 points left on the table across 214 shots 3.85 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
  3. Serve +1: short return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
  4. Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts

Stefan Edberg

7.6 points left on the table across 219 shots 3.47 per 100 shots

  1. Serve +1: short return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
  3. Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts