RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 53 charted matches · 1993–2001

Patrick Rafter

Archetype: Serve-and-volleyer · Net rusher (6)

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 67.1% ±2.3 raw 66.3% · tour 63.4% · 5,145 points
Return points won 36.6% ±2.5 raw 33.3% · tour 36.6% · 5,066 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.05 ±0.14 better than 70% of ATP · raw +0.05
Shot selection +0.32 ±0.13 better than 81% of ATP · raw +0.32
Execution −1.03 ±0.40 better than 24% of ATP · raw −0.99
Tactical adaptability +0.07 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 46 matches
Adaptation speed +0.08 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 4.17 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 3% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 18,757 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Patrick Rafter goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 559 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 46% 45.7%±4.9 42.5%
BH crosscourt 16% 42.4%±7.7 47.6%
BH slice through the middle 14% 42.3%±8.3 35.1%
BH through the middle 6% 35.9%±10.6 43.7%
BH slice down the line 6% 42.3%±11.2 37.1%
BH down the line 6% 47.7%±11.3 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt + approach 2% 57.6%±14.6 54.2%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 492 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 44% 43.7%±5.3 40.9%
BH crosscourt 17% 40.0%±7.8 46.9%
BH slice through the middle 16% 44.1%±8.1 32.6%
BH slice down the line 7% 24.8%±9.6 33.3%
BH through the middle 7% 41.9%±11.0 43.0%
BH down the line 4% 40.1%±12.4 44.2%
FH inside-out 2% 49.5%±14.8 51.7%

Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net

position worth 54% to the average player · 430 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH volley crosscourt 21% 48.5%±7.8 56.5%
FH volley crosscourt 21% 63.5%±7.6 61.3%
FH volley down the line 19% 57.9%±8.0 55.4%
BH volley through the middle 16% 37.9%±8.5 36.6%
FH volley through the middle 12% 39.0%±9.6 36.5%
BH volley down the line 7% 48.4%±11.4 50.8%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 399 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 43% 44.2%±5.9 42.1%
BH crosscourt 18% 50.1%±8.6 48.0%
BH slice through the middle 16% 45.2%±9.0 35.1%
BH through the middle 9% 37.1%±10.6 43.8%
BH slice down the line 6% 37.6%±12.1 35.8%
BH down the line 5% 42.9%±13.2 46.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Patrick Rafter's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 356 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 35% ▼ 82% / 73%
Body 12% 21% ▲ 67% / 63%
T 44% 44% 76% / 75%

2,460 normal · 85 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 51% 71% / 73%
Body 17% 15% 67% / 63%
T 35% 33% 73% / 72%

2,050 normal · 271 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 69.7%±2.2 n=1,114 57% ▲
Body12% 63.2%±4.3 n=310 0% ▼
T44% 63.5%±2.3 n=1,121 43% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.002): serve wide more. Gap 3.6 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +1.0 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 64.2%±2.3 n=1,115 48%
Body17% 64.4%±3.8 n=393 4% ▼
T35% 65.6%±2.7 n=813 48% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.79).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.73 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.8±2.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,875 repeats, 2,885 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 127 34% −3.2±6.2
1stAd courtT 497 30% +2.0±3.3
1stAd courtWide 751 26% −1.7±2.6
1stDeuce courtBody 169 31% −6.1±5.4
1stDeuce courtT 683 21% −3.7±2.5
1stDeuce courtWide 614 27% −0.6±2.9
2ndAd courtBody 297 46% −3.6±4.5
2ndAd courtT 145 46% −3.7±6.2
2ndAd courtWide 487 53% +5.1±3.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 369 44% −5.0±4.1
2ndDeuce courtT 435 48% −2.0±3.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 211 45% −2.7±5.3

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Patrick Rafter's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH volley crosscourt used 2.7% · won 75% · +5.1±5.8 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH volley crosscourt used 3.4% · won 71% · +1.1±5.6 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH volley crosscourt used 2.1% · won 65% · −5.1±7.2 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → BH volley crosscourt used 2.6% · won 63% · −6.6±6.6 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → BH volley down the line used 2.8% · won 60% · −9.4±6.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, mid used 5.1% · won 48% · +14.4±5.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH slice crosscourt, mid used 2.2% · won 46% · +12.6±8.0 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, short used 2.2% · won 43% · +9.7±7.9 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, deep used 2.0% · won 44% · +9.9±8.1 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.2% · won 40% · +6.1±7.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.4% · won 56% · +12.1±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 52% · +7.6±9.6 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 1.3% · won 51% · +7.3±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 48% · +4.4±9.0 vs own baseline
  5. BH slice through the middle → FH down the line used 1.5% · won 50% · +6.3±11.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Patrick Rafter wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH volley crosscourt → BH down the line → FH volley crosscourt used 0.5% · won 66% · +16.7±10.2 vs own baseline · +1.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (12/15)
  2. Wide serve → FH down the line return → BH volley crosscourt used 0.4% · won 67% · +17.2±11.0 vs own baseline · +12.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Marat Safin (4/7)
  3. Wide serve → BH down the line return, mid → FH volley crosscourt used 0.2% · won 66% · +16.4±12.3 vs own baseline · +25.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. Body serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH volley down the line used 0.3% · won 63% · +13.6±11.8 vs own baseline · +19.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. Body serve → BH through the middle return → BH volley crosscourt used 0.4% · won 60% · +10.1±11.3 vs own baseline · +11.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (6/10), Sergi Bruguera (6/7)
  6. T serve → BH slice through the middle return, short → BH volley down the line used 0.3% · won 61% · +11.8±12.2 vs own baseline · +11.0 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 2nd serve · ad court+3.5151
BH slice to their forehand · return+2.6241
BH slice to their backhand · rally+2.5582
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+2.41,114
BH slice to the middle · return +1+2.3138

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · return +1−5.8260
BH to their backhand · return +1−4.4209
FH to their backhand · return−3.0420
FH to their forehand · return−1.6323
BH to their backhand · return−1.1751

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Rafael Nadal, Adrian Mannarino, Yoshihito Nishioka, Learner Tien, Casper Ruud

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Serve & volley81%
Chipped returns56%
Points at net32%
Backhand slice61%
Point-ending shots34.5%
BH down the line27%
Unforced errors / shot10.5%
1st serve in62%
Wide serves · deuce44%
FH down the line30%
T serves · deuce44%
Wide serves · ad48%
Drop shots / shot0.9%
Through the middle22%
T serves · ad35%
Run-around forehands6%
Deep returns17%
Avg rally length2.9
Forehand share41%

Plays most like

  1. Stefan Edberg 1985–2012 plan v
  2. Greg Rusedski 1993–2005 plan v
  3. Tim Henman 1995–2006 plan v
  4. Max Mirnyi 2001–2006 plan v
  5. John Mcenroe 1978–1992 plan v
  6. Boris Becker 1985–1999 plan v
  7. Mark Philippoussis 1995–2003 plan v
  8. Michael Stich 1990–1997 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Sergiy Stakhovsky 2010–2022
  2. Mischa Zverev 2013–2020
  3. Nicolas Mahut 2007–2021

Charted matches