New Haven · QF · Hard · 18 Aug 1995
Sergi Bruguera v Andre Agassi
48–61 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Andre Agassi won 10.3 more points than Sergi Bruguera relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sergi Bruguera's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.4, forehand execution −1.9, serve 1st shot selection −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sergi Bruguera | Andre Agassi | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −1.2 | +0.4 | −0.9 | +0.1 | −0.9 | +0.3 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.9 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.8 | +0.6 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +1.5 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +2.1 | +2.9 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.3 | −1.9 | −1.4 | +0.2 | +3.2 | ±0.0 | +3.4 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −3.4 | −2.9 | +0.6 | +0.1 | −2.2 | −1.5 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.1 | +0.9 | −0.5 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +0.9 | +0.6 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −2.1 | −2.1 | −4.1 | +2.3 | +1.9 | +2.1 | +6.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Sergi Bruguera | Andre Agassi | Net, Sergi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.7 | +4.7 | −5.5 | |
| 2 | −3.4 | +1.5 | −4.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sergi Bruguera serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 55% | 9% 67% | 30% 60% |
| 2 | 50% 38% | 12% 33% | 38% 60% |
Set to set +1.98 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andre Agassi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 57% | 12% 100% | 62% 81% |
| 2 | 55% 73% | – | 45% 56% |
Within sets +0.97 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sergi Bruguera
5.2 points left on the table across 230 shots 2.24 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
Andre Agassi
3.2 points left on the table across 235 shots 1.38 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob down the line ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.11 pts