US Open · SF · Hard · 9 Sep 1995
Pete Sampras v Jim Courier
140–128 in points · Pete Sampras won
Why it went the way it did
Pete Sampras won 7.7 more points than Jim Courier relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jim Courier's biggest leaks: serve 1st shot selection −2.6, return execution −2.2, backhand execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Pete Sampras | Jim Courier | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | +0.4 | +1.7 | +2.6 | −0.4 | −2.6 | +0.7 | −2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −0.8 | +1.8 | +0.8 | −0.1 | −1.2 | +2.0 | +0.7 |
| Return | +1.3 | −1.5 | −1.9 | −2.1 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −1.7 |
| Forehand | +0.7 | +3.4 | +1.1 | +5.2 | +0.4 | +5.8 | +1.8 | +8.0 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +1.3 | +1.9 | +3.7 | +0.5 | +0.4 | −1.9 | −1.0 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −2.4 | −0.9 | −3.0 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −1.4 | −3.2 |
| Net | +1.2 | +0.3 | −0.4 | +1.1 | +0.4 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −1.0 | −0.2 | −1.3 | +0.3 | −1.3 |
| All shots | +4.3 | +0.2 | +2.7 | +7.2 | +1.2 | −0.7 | −1.0 | −0.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Pete Sampras | Jim Courier | Net, Pete | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.8 | −0.7 | −1.1 | |
| 2 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.3 | |
| 3 | +4.0 | +1.1 | +2.9 | |
| 4 | +5.1 | −1.1 | +6.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Pete Sampras serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 78% | 3% 100% | 49% 61% |
| 2 | 65% 71% | – | 35% 67% |
| 3 | 62% 78% | 3% 0% | 34% 70% |
| 4 | 60% 86% | – | 40% 57% |
Set to set +1.13 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.79 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jim Courier serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 92% | 7% 100% | 48% 57% |
| 2 | 49% 71% | 9% 67% | 43% 67% |
| 3 | 41% 62% | 22% 57% | 38% 67% |
| 4 | 49% 62% | 21% 56% | 30% 54% |
Set to set +0.82 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.64 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Pete Sampras
8.5 points left on the table across 419 shots 2.02 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.25 pts
Jim Courier
9.5 points left on the table across 392 shots 2.42 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×14; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts