Australian Open · SF · Hard · 24 Jan 1997
Michael Chang v Carlos Moya
91–113 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Carlos Moya won 15.4 more points than Michael Chang relative to what the serve alone predicted. Michael Chang's biggest leaks: net execution −2.6, serve 1st shot selection −2.3, serve 1st execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Michael Chang | Carlos Moya | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | −2.3 | −1.5 | −3.4 | −0.3 | −1.7 | −0.7 | −2.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −1.2 | +1.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +1.6 | +0.8 |
| Return | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +3.3 | +3.4 | +0.4 | −0.5 | +2.1 | +2.0 |
| Forehand | +1.1 | +2.9 | +1.2 | +5.2 | +0.3 | +5.7 | +9.5 | +15.5 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.1 | +1.4 | +1.9 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +4.1 | +4.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −1.2 | +0.2 | −2.2 | +0.5 | −1.5 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.6 | −2.6 | −2.3 | −0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −1.8 | −0.2 | −0.9 | +0.2 | −0.9 |
| All shots | +1.5 | −1.5 | +1.5 | +1.6 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +17.2 | +17.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Michael Chang | Carlos Moya | Net, Michael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.1 | +6.1 | −3.9 | |
| 2 | −1.4 | +5.9 | −7.4 | |
| 3 | +0.9 | +5.0 | −4.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Michael Chang serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 50% | 5% 100% | 62% 48% |
| 2 | 50% 38% | – | 50% 50% |
| 3 | 43% 76% | 2% 0% | 55% 37% |
Set to set +0.17 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.73 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carlos Moya serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 63% | 12% 25% | 41% 71% |
| 2 | 50% 55% | 27% 83% | 23% 80% |
| 3 | 57% 59% | 10% 67% | 33% 60% |
Set to set −0.72 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.69 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Michael Chang
9.1 points left on the table across 455 shots 1.99 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.26 pts
Carlos Moya
12.6 points left on the table across 469 shots 2.70 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts