RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 35 charted matches · 1997–2007

Carlos Moya

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.8% ±2.5 raw 62.4% · tour 63.4% · 3,282 points
Return points won 37.5% ±2.6 raw 34.8% · tour 36.6% · 3,374 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.13 ±0.10 better than 24% of ATP · raw −0.13
Shot selection +0.16 ±0.16 better than 70% of ATP · raw +0.15
Execution −0.02 ±0.39 better than 67% of ATP · raw −0.11
Tactical adaptability +0.08 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 33 matches
Adaptation speed +0.02 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.38 ±0.58 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 2,037 shots · better than 26% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.85 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 27% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 17,022 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Carlos Moya goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,229 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 24% 46.5%±4.6 47.6%
BH through the middle 15% 38.2%±5.6 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 47.6%±5.8 46.4%
FH inside-out 12% 51.4%±6.3 51.8%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 44.3%±6.9 42.5%
FH inside-in 10% 52.8%±7.0 54.7%
FH through the middle 4% 50.7%±9.6 45.2%
BH slice through the middle 4% 30.8%±9.4 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 878 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 49.1%±4.1 46.6%
FH down the line 27% 43.8%±5.1 44.7%
FH through the middle 19% 39.4%±5.8 41.5%
FH down the line + approach 3% 66.4%±11.2 69.3%
FH slice through the middle 3% 24.2%±10.5 24.5%
FH slice down the line 2% 24.7%±11.1 25.6%
FH slice crosscourt 2% 27.0%±12.5 30.9%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 714 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 29% 45.9%±5.4 48.0%
BH through the middle 16% 37.7%±6.9 43.8%
BH down the line 12% 39.7%±7.7 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 12% 41.8%±8.0 42.1%
FH inside-out 9% 56.1%±9.0 52.6%
BH slice through the middle 6% 28.2%±9.2 35.1%
FH inside-in 6% 61.4%±10.3 54.3%
BH slice down the line 5% 44.9%±10.9 35.8%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 565 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 26% 43.9%±6.4 46.9%
BH through the middle 20% 38.5%±6.9 43.0%
BH down the line 16% 49.4%±7.9 44.2%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 34.5%±9.2 40.9%
FH inside-out 9% 49.8%±9.9 51.7%
FH inside-in 7% 51.2%±10.6 53.6%
BH slice through the middle 6% 29.5%±10.0 32.6%
BH slice down the line 4% 38.2%±12.5 33.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +4 How much less varied Carlos Moya's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 276 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 47% 69% / 73%
Body 15% 16% 66% / 63%
T 39% 37% 73% / 75%

1,584 normal · 70 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 61% 68% / 73%
Body 17% 20% 64% / 63%
T 30% 19% ▼ 71% / 72%

1,336 normal · 206 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 63.2%±2.8 n=752 59% ▲
Body15% 62.5%±4.7 n=254 2% ▼
T39% 62.0%±3.1 n=648 39%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.88).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide54% 62.5%±2.7 n=838 67% ▲
Body17% 61.8%±4.6 n=267 4% ▼
T28% 61.5%±3.7 n=437 29%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.93).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.34 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.7±2.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,253 repeats, 1,873 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 86 36% −0.7±7.3
1stAd courtT 369 23% −5.1±3.5
1stAd courtWide 495 30% +2.7±3.3
1stDeuce courtBody 99 33% −3.4±6.8
1stDeuce courtT 461 23% −2.6±3.1
1stDeuce courtWide 440 27% −0.3±3.4
2ndAd courtBody 115 47% −2.6±6.8
2ndAd courtT 116 46% −3.5±6.8
2ndAd courtWide 389 48% −0.5±4.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 217 52% +2.7±5.2
2ndDeuce courtT 273 48% −1.2±4.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 226 46% −1.8±5.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Carlos Moya's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 65% · −1.3±8.1 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.2% · won 63% · −2.9±8.3 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH inside-out used 3.4% · won 61% · −5.5±7.2 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 58% · −7.8±8.5 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.7% · won 60% · −6.2±7.0 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.2% · won 52% · +15.4±7.9 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 3.7% · won 51% · +13.5±7.6 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.3% · won 46% · +9.4±9.0 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 2.8% · won 42% · +5.2±8.3 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 4.2% · won 41% · +3.5±7.1 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line + approach used 1.0% · won 56% · +11.6±10.3 vs own baseline
  2. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 50% · +5.4±7.6 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 49% · +4.6±7.3 vs own baseline
  4. FH inside-out → FH inside-out used 1.3% · won 51% · +6.7±9.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH down the line → FH down the line used 1.3% · won 51% · +6.7±9.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Carlos Moya wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → BH slice crosscourt return, mid → FH inside-out used 0.3% · won 59% · +12.0±11.2 vs own baseline · +11.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Mark Philippoussis (6/8), Alex Corretja (6/6)
  2. Wide serve → BH crosscourt return, mid → FH inside-in used 0.4% · won 58% · +10.3±10.8 vs own baseline · +5.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (9/15)
  3. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 55% · +7.8±9.4 vs own baseline · +12.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (4/11), Roger Federer (4/6)
  4. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-out used 0.5% · won 56% · +8.3±9.9 vs own baseline · +5.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alex Corretja (3/7), Omar Camporese (3/7)
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH inside-in used 0.4% · won 56% · +9.1±10.5 vs own baseline · +7.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (8/13)
  6. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 57% · +9.3±10.7 vs own baseline · +4.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH slice to the middle · return+3.5150
FH to the middle · serve +1+2.4232
FH to the middle · return +1+2.1175
BH slice to their backhand · rally+2.0284
FH to their forehand · serve +1+1.9534

Most exposed to

BH slice to their backhand · return−3.0292
T 1st serve · ad court−1.6604
FH to their backhand · return−1.5324
FH to their backhand · rally−1.51,084
BH slice to their backhand · return +1−1.3127

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori, Richard Gasquet, Casper Ruud, Novak Djokovic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Run-around forehands37%
Forehand share62%
BH down the line28%
Wide serves · ad54%
Backhand slice27%
Avg rally length4.2
Wide serves · deuce45%
Points at net13%
Chipped returns16%
Serve & volley5%
Drop shots / shot1.2%
1st serve in60%
Point-ending shots21.8%
FH down the line28%
Unforced errors / shot8.7%
Through the middle21%
T serves · deuce39%
Deep returns18%
T serves · ad28%

Plays most like

  1. Tommy Robredo 2003–2022 plan v
  2. Magnus Norman 2000–2001 plan v
  3. Albert Costa 1996–2002 plan v
  4. Jim Courier 1989–1999 plan v
  5. Alex Corretja 1995–2002 plan v
  6. Kevin King 2019–2019 plan v
  7. Radu Albot 2016–2024 plan v
  8. Dominic Thiem 2011–2024 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Kevin King 2019–2019
  2. Radu Albot 2016–2024
  3. Dominic Thiem 2011–2024

Charted matches