Davis Cup World Group QF · RR · Hard · 4 Apr 1997

Omar Camporese v Carlos Moya

169–150 in points · Omar Camporese won

Why it went the way it did

Omar Camporese won 8.2 more points than Carlos Moya relative to what the serve alone predicted. Carlos Moya's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.5, return shot selection −3.0, serve 1st shot selection −2.5.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

Shot	Omar Camporese				Carlos Moya
Shot	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total
Serve 1st	+0.1	−3.2	+1.2	−1.9	−1.9	−2.5	+2.9	−1.5
Serve 2nd	+0.2	−1.7	+3.0	+1.6	+0.1	−1.2	+1.9	+0.7
Return	−0.2	−0.6	−3.8	−4.6	−0.3	−3.0	+0.9	−2.4
Forehand	+1.0	+7.8	−6.2	+2.7	+0.4	+5.8	−0.4	+5.9
Backhand	+0.3	+0.7	−0.5	+0.5	−0.4	+1.0	−2.1	−1.4
Slice	+0.8	−2.8	−0.9	−2.8	−0.1	−5.5	+1.4	−4.2
Net	+0.8	+1.2	+4.9	+6.8	−0.1	−0.2	−1.8	−2.0
Touch	+0.2	−0.2	+1.1	+1.0	+0.3	−0.7	+0.4	±0.0
All shots	+3.2	+1.3	−1.3	+3.2	−2.0	−6.2	+3.2	−5.0

Set by set

Set	Omar Camporese	Carlos Moya	Net, Omar
1	−2.2	+0.2	−2.4
2	+3.1	+2.3	+0.8
3	+0.5	−5.0	+5.5
4	+0.4	−1.1	+1.5
5	+1.4	−1.4	+2.8

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Omar Camporese serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	59% 69%	7% 33%	34% 60%
2	56% 65%	6% 50%	39% 86%
3	33% 75%	17% 50%	50% 75%
4	50% 73%	10% 67%	40% 58%
5	43% 67%	4% 100%	54% 80%

Set to set +0.03 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Carlos Moya serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	33% 67%	38% 76%	29% 62%
2	48% 70%	26% 73%	26% 64%
3	32% 17%	37% 71%	32% 33%
4	42% 73%	31% 25%	27% 86%
5	39% 78%	26% 67%	35% 50%

Set to set −0.52 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.77 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Omar Camporese

10.4 points left on the table across 523 shots 1.98 per 100 shots

Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts

Carlos Moya

14.0 points left on the table across 504 shots 2.77 per 100 shots

Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.40 pts
Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×10; FH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.35 pts
Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.32 pts