Vienna · F · Hard · 12 Oct 1997
Greg Rusedski v Goran Ivanisevic
160–172 in points · Goran Ivanisevic won
Why it went the way it did
Goran Ivanisevic won 1.3 more points than Greg Rusedski relative to what the serve alone predicted. Greg Rusedski's biggest leaks: return execution −7.8, net execution −5.9, return shot selection −3.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Greg Rusedski | Goran Ivanisevic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +8.6 | −1.8 | +6.8 | +0.2 | +10.6 | −1.1 | +9.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +4.8 | −3.0 | +1.8 | +0.3 | +5.2 | −7.1 | −1.6 |
| Return | −0.6 | −3.9 | −7.8 | −12.4 | +0.8 | −1.3 | −0.6 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +2.1 | +0.3 | +3.0 | +0.1 | +1.1 | −1.9 | −0.7 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −1.0 | −0.5 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.3 | −2.9 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.7 | −5.9 | −5.0 | +0.8 | +1.1 | −10.2 | −8.3 |
| Touch | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.1 | +11.7 | −19.0 | −7.1 | +2.2 | +15.0 | −22.9 | −5.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Greg Rusedski | Goran Ivanisevic | Net, Greg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.8 | +1.1 | +0.6 | |
| 2 | −0.3 | −4.6 | +4.3 | |
| 3 | −3.1 | −6.1 | +3.0 | |
| 4 | −3.7 | +3.5 | −7.2 | |
| 5 | −1.8 | +0.2 | −2.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Greg Rusedski serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 75% | – | 45% 69% |
| 2 | 49% 84% | 13% 100% | 38% 60% |
| 3 | 46% 78% | 3% 100% | 51% 75% |
| 4 | 46% 42% | 19% 80% | 35% 44% |
| 5 | 25% 50% | 13% 100% | 63% 40% |
Set to set +0.86 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.55 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Goran Ivanisevic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 75% | 21% 100% | 37% 57% |
| 2 | 42% 68% | 8% 75% | 50% 62% |
| 3 | 48% 66% | 5% 33% | 47% 75% |
| 4 | 43% 100% | – | 57% 67% |
| 5 | 50% 60% | 3% 100% | 47% 64% |
Set to set +0.05 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Greg Rusedski
14.4 points left on the table across 240 shots 5.98 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH down the line ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.66 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.88 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH down the line ×5; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.57 pts
Goran Ivanisevic
13.2 points left on the table across 232 shots 5.70 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH crosscourt ×11; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.06 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.72 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH crosscourt ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.71 pts