Australian Open · F · Hard · 1 Feb 1998
Petr Korda v Marcelo Rios
90–58 in points · Petr Korda won
Why it went the way it did
Petr Korda won 15.2 more points than Marcelo Rios relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marcelo Rios's biggest leaks: forehand execution −6.2, backhand execution −4.8, serve 1st shot selection −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Petr Korda | Marcelo Rios | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | −1.6 | −1.3 | −2.5 | +0.3 | −1.3 | −0.9 | −1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.6 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −0.8 |
| Return | −0.6 | −0.4 | +1.2 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −0.2 | −1.5 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.0 | +2.2 | +3.5 | −0.1 | +0.5 | −6.2 | −5.8 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.9 | +2.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −4.8 | −4.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.3 | −0.7 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | −3.0 | −2.8 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.0 | −0.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.7 |
| All shots | +0.6 | −2.7 | +0.7 | −1.5 | −0.3 | −2.7 | −13.7 | −16.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Petr Korda | Marcelo Rios | Net, Petr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.3 | −6.9 | +5.6 | |
| 2 | +0.8 | −5.9 | +6.6 | |
| 3 | −0.9 | −3.8 | +2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Petr Korda serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 71% | – | 44% 55% |
| 2 | 43% 78% | – | 57% 75% |
| 3 | 52% 75% | – | 48% 53% |
Set to set +0.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Marcelo Rios serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 54% | – | 50% 31% |
| 2 | 77% 41% | – | 23% 60% |
| 3 | 61% 50% | – | 39% 56% |
Set to set −1.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Petr Korda
7.7 points left on the table across 217 shots 3.56 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.43 pts
Marcelo Rios
7.9 points left on the table across 213 shots 3.73 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.61 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.42 pts