RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 22 charted matches · 1995–2001

Marcelo Rios

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.7% ±2.9 raw 63.7% · tour 63.4% · 1,974 points
Return points won 38.1% ±3.0 raw 38.9% · tour 36.6% · 2,093 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.13 ±0.05 better than 87% of ATP · raw +0.14
Shot selection −0.23 ±0.19 better than 28% of ATP · raw −0.21
Execution −0.40 ±0.62 better than 48% of ATP · raw −0.11
Tactical adaptability −0.03 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 21 matches
Adaptation speed ±0.00 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.60 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 50% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 10,900 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Marcelo Rios goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 765 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 37% 49.3%±4.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 25% 50.8%±5.6 43.7%
BH down the line 22% 49.9%±6.0 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 3% 39.6%±12.3 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 3% 39.3%±12.4 42.5%
BH slice down the line 2% 34.4%±12.5 37.1%
FH inside-in 2% 49.8%±13.7 54.7%
BH down the line + approach 2% 66.4%±13.1 66.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 496 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 65% 53.0%±4.4 46.6%
FH down the line 16% 43.8%±8.2 44.7%
FH through the middle 14% 34.8%±8.4 41.5%
FH down the line + approach 2% 69.5%±13.8 69.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 487 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 28% 47.1%±6.6 52.7%
FH down the line 17% 44.9%±8.1 51.5%
BH down the line 15% 46.9%±8.6 48.3%
BH through the middle 12% 37.6%±9.0 46.8%
BH crosscourt 12% 38.7%±9.1 49.1%
FH through the middle 10% 55.8%±10.0 47.0%
FH crosscourt + approach 4% 73.6%±11.8 69.9%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 381 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 35% 45.2%±6.6 48.0%
BH down the line 26% 38.4%±7.4 46.5%
BH through the middle 22% 47.4%±8.0 43.8%
BH slice through the middle 4% 31.5%±12.9 35.1%
BH slice down the line 4% 34.7%±13.2 35.8%
BH slice crosscourt 3% 37.7%±13.9 42.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Marcelo Rios's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 159 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 46% 67% / 73%
Body 6% 6% 65% / 63%
T 48% 49% 72% / 75%

966 normal · 35 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 62% 65% 70% / 73%
Body 8% 9% 65% / 63%
T 31% 27% 75% / 72%

795 normal · 124 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 59.3%±3.6 n=464 39% ▼
Body6% 65.1%±8.3 n=59 0% ▼
T48% 65.7%±3.5 n=478 61% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.06).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide62% 63.5%±3.2 n=571 57% ▼
Body8% 61.0%±8.0 n=71 0% ▼
T30% 67.0%±4.4 n=277 43% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.33).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.47 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.3±3.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (862 repeats, 1,014 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 96 34% −2.8±7.0
1stAd courtT 225 31% +2.7±4.8
1stAd courtWide 215 28% +0.6±4.7
1stDeuce courtBody 70 34% −2.7±7.8
1stDeuce courtT 213 25% −0.2±4.6
1stDeuce courtWide 334 32% +4.5±4.0
2ndAd courtBody 202 54% +4.9±5.4
2ndAd courtT 120 52% +2.6±6.7
2ndAd courtWide 119 53% +4.3±6.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 106 48% −1.4±7.0
2ndDeuce courtT 65 48% −1.4±8.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 278 48% +0.1±4.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Marcelo Rios's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line + approach used 2.2% · won 67% · +0.5±9.4 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 5.5% · won 63% · −3.5±7.0 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 2.7% · won 61% · −5.3±9.2 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH through the middle used 2.3% · won 60% · −6.4±9.7 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 60% · −6.9±8.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 4.4% · won 53% · +12.4±8.4 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 5.2% · won 50% · +9.2±7.9 vs own baseline
  3. vs body serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 2.6% · won 53% · +12.7±9.9 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 6.4% · won 48% · +8.0±7.3 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (ad court) → BH down the line, mid used 2.7% · won 51% · +10.4±9.9 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.3% · won 53% · +5.3±6.6 vs own baseline
  2. BH down the line → BH down the line used 1.2% · won 56% · +8.2±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.1% · won 51% · +3.1±5.8 vs own baseline
  4. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 52% · +4.3±8.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.6% · won 53% · +5.1±10.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Marcelo Rios wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. T serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 59% · +9.1±11.4 vs own baseline · +14.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (7/7)
  2. BH down the line → BH down the line → BH through the middle used 0.4% · won 60% · +9.9±11.9 vs own baseline · +25.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Carlos Moya (6/9)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 58% · +8.4±12.5 vs own baseline · +18.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jan Siemerink (9/11)
  4. BH through the middle → FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 55% · +4.9±9.5 vs own baseline · +12.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Carlos Moya (11/18), Alex Corretja (8/9)
  5. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 55% · +5.6±11.0 vs own baseline · +14.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Carlos Moya (3/8)
  6. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → BH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 56% · +6.5±11.9 vs own baseline · +12.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their forehand · return+2.7214
BH to the middle · serve +1+2.0135
T 2nd serve · deuce court+1.1168
Wide 2nd serve · deuce court+1.1209
BH to their forehand · return +1+0.7244

Most exposed to

BH slice to the middle · return−2.6183
BH slice to their forehand · rally−1.9120
BH to their forehand · serve +1−1.0171
Wide 2nd serve · deuce court−0.9278
Body 2nd serve · ad court−0.6202

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet, Nick Kyrgios, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · ad62%
BH down the line29%
Avg rally length4.4
Wide serves · deuce46%
T serves · deuce48%
Unforced errors / shot10.2%
Points at net11%
Point-ending shots23.3%
FH down the line29%
Serve & volley2%
Forehand share51%
Chipped returns10%
Run-around forehands11%
1st serve in58%
Drop shots / shot0.4%
Deep returns20%
Backhand slice8%
Through the middle20%
T serves · ad30%

Plays most like

  1. Paul Henri Mathieu 2002–2016 plan v
  2. Gustavo Kuerten 1997–2007 plan v
  3. David Nalbandian 2002–2012 plan v
  4. Andre Agassi 1988–2006 plan v
  5. Juan Carlos Ferrero 2000–2009 plan v
  6. Ivan Ljubicic 2003–2011 plan v
  7. David Goffin 2013–2025 plan v
  8. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. David Goffin 2013–2025
  2. Fernando Verdasco 2005–2022
  3. Egor Gerasimov 2016–2022

Charted matches