Memphis · F · Hard · 22 Feb 1998
Mark Philippoussis v Michael Chang
60–42 in points · Mark Philippoussis won
Why it went the way it did
Mark Philippoussis won 7.3 more points than Michael Chang relative to what the serve alone predicted. Michael Chang's biggest leaks: net execution −2.4, return execution −1.5, slice shot selection −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mark Philippoussis | Michael Chang | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.7 | +2.6 | +2.0 | +0.1 | −0.9 | +1.0 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.9 | +0.6 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.3 | +1.8 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −1.4 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.3 | +0.2 | +1.7 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.9 | +3.2 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.7 | +1.6 | +2.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.0 | +0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.7 | −1.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +1.3 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −2.4 | −2.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +0.9 | −0.5 | +7.0 | +7.4 | +0.2 | −0.8 | +0.7 | +0.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Mark Philippoussis | Michael Chang | Net, Mark | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.0 | +0.2 | +3.7 | |
| 2 | +3.4 | −0.2 | +3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mark Philippoussis serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 67% | 3% 100% | 53% 72% |
| 2 | 50% 33% | – | 50% 100% |
Within sets +1.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Michael Chang serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 50% | – | 71% 60% |
| 2 | 38% 63% | 10% 0% | 52% 45% |
Within sets −0.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mark Philippoussis
3.0 points left on the table across 134 shots 2.25 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit BH smash through the middle ×1; BH smash down the line rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Michael Chang
3.5 points left on the table across 123 shots 2.88 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob down the line ×2; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts