Halle · F · Grass · 15 Jun 1998
Magnus Larsson v Yevgeny Kafelnikov
61–66 in points · Yevgeny Kafelnikov won
Why it went the way it did
Yevgeny Kafelnikov won 1.1 more points than Magnus Larsson relative to what the serve alone predicted. Magnus Larsson's biggest leaks: net execution −3.6, slice shot selection −0.8, touch shot selection −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Magnus Larsson | Yevgeny Kafelnikov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +1.5 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −2.7 | −2.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +2.8 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.4 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.6 | +1.8 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +2.1 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −0.8 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.7 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.4 | −3.6 | −3.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 | +2.3 | +1.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| All shots | +0.7 | −0.2 | +2.0 | +2.5 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +2.7 | +3.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Magnus Larsson | Yevgeny Kafelnikov | Net, Magnus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.2 | +1.7 | +1.5 | |
| 2 | −0.8 | +1.8 | −2.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Magnus Larsson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 67% | 12% 100% | 54% 50% |
| 2 | 45% 47% | 3% 0% | 52% 71% |
Within sets +0.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Yevgeny Kafelnikov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 63% | 5% 50% | 38% 56% |
| 2 | 65% 71% | – | 35% 56% |
Set to set +0.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Magnus Larsson
4.5 points left on the table across 104 shots 4.34 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Yevgeny Kafelnikov
4.7 points left on the table across 106 shots 4.41 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts