RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 1994–1998

Magnus Larsson

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.2% ±3.5 raw 65.1% · tour 63.4% · 578 points
Return points won 36.0% ±3.5 raw 30.8% · tour 36.6% · 607 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.15 ±0.23 better than 88% of ATP · raw +0.15
Shot selection −0.83 ±0.32 better than 4% of ATP · raw −0.84
Execution +0.03 ±1.45 better than 70% of ATP · raw −0.05

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,310 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Magnus Larsson goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 106 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 26% 42.7%±11.7 47.6%
BH slice crosscourt 21% 32.1%±11.9 42.5%
BH down the line 20% 44.6%±12.8 46.4%
BH through the middle 15% 57.6%±13.5 43.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 47 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 43.3%±12.9 46.6%
FH down the line 40% 51.2%±13.2 44.7%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 54% to the average player · 38 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 37% 50.6%±14.1 56.0%
FH down the line 29% 47.4%±14.8 53.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −12 How much less varied Magnus Larsson's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 51 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 27% ▼ 71% / 73%
Body 10% 18% ▲ 70% / 63%
T 50% 55% 79% / 75%

291 normal · 11 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 50% 80% / 73%
Body 7% 18% ▲ 61% / 63%
T 44% 33% ▼ 73% / 72%

232 normal · 40 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide39% 63.5%±6.5 n=119 37% ▼
Body10% 70.1%±9.6 n=31 0% ▼
T50% 65.8%±5.8 n=152 63% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.48).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide49% 69.1%±5.9 n=134 62% ▲
Body8% 60.2%±11.1 n=23 0% ▼
T42% 62.3%±6.6 n=115 38% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.16).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.51 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +5.3±3.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (257 repeats, 303 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 14 37% −0.4±11.9
1stAd courtT 82 21% −7.1±6.3
1stAd courtWide 86 23% −3.8±6.5
1stDeuce courtBody 20 34% −2.7±11.0
1stDeuce courtT 82 17% −7.6±5.9
1stDeuce courtWide 84 21% −6.0±6.3
2ndAd courtBody 45 44% −5.6±9.4
2ndAd courtT 21 51% +1.3±11.5
2ndAd courtWide 42 51% +2.3±9.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 45 44% −5.4±9.4
2ndDeuce courtT 42 47% −2.6±9.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 37 57% +9.3±9.9

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.6134
T 1st serve · deuce court+1.6152

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · ad court−2.9120
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.2140
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.6147
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.6151

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Reilly Opelka, Milos Raonic, Nick Kyrgios, Nicolas Jarry, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Charted matches