Wimbledon · F · Grass · 4 Jul 1998
Nathalie Tauziat v Jana Novotna
63–75 in points · Jana Novotna won
Why it went the way it did
Jana Novotna won 3.5 more points than Nathalie Tauziat relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nathalie Tauziat's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.9, serve 1st execution −1.9, forehand execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nathalie Tauziat | Jana Novotna | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | +1.4 | −1.9 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −1.1 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.5 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.6 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.8 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.5 | −1.2 | −0.8 | +0.2 | +0.6 | −1.4 | −0.6 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.9 | −2.9 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.6 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −1.0 | +0.2 | −1.6 | +1.3 | ±0.0 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.4 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.1 | +0.5 | −0.7 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.9 |
| All shots | +0.2 | +0.5 | −6.3 | −5.6 | +1.2 | −0.4 | −2.9 | −2.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Nathalie Tauziat | Jana Novotna | Net, Nathalie | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.9 | ±0.0 | −2.9 | |
| 2 | −2.7 | −2.1 | −0.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nathalie Tauziat serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 52% | 2% 100% | 43% 56% |
| 2 | 58% 57% | – | 42% 60% |
Within sets −0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jana Novotna serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 57% | – | 53% 69% |
| 2 | 56% 70% | 11% 50% | 33% 50% |
Set to set −2.78 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nathalie Tauziat
4.8 points left on the table across 119 shots 4.06 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Jana Novotna
5.3 points left on the table across 117 shots 4.57 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.91 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley down the line rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts