RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 12 charted matches · 1991–1999

Jana Novotna

Archetype: Serve-and-volleyer · Net rusher

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 57.9% ±3.4 raw 55.3% · tour 56.3% · 855 points
Return points won 45.3% ±3.4 raw 41.4% · tour 43.7% · 886 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.23 ±0.18 better than 89% of WTA · raw +0.22
Shot selection −0.64 ±0.34 better than 8% of WTA · raw −0.67
Execution +0.13 ±0.70 better than 67% of WTA · raw −0.05
Tactical adaptability +0.02 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed −0.07 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 3.55 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 1% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,384 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Jana Novotna goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 208 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 49% 49.2%±7.4 40.4%
BH slice down the line 17% 47.9%±11.1 31.7%
BH slice through the middle 12% 46.4%±12.2 34.4%
BH slice crosscourt + approach 11% 60.8%±12.4 52.7%
BH slice down the line + approach 5% 40.7%±14.8 41.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 183 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 51% 46.3%±7.7 46.7%
FH down the line 28% 50.0%±9.7 44.9%
FH through the middle 14% 40.6%±12.0 41.3%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 119 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 57% 48.8%±8.8 39.6%
BH slice through the middle 14% 36.9%±13.0 33.2%
BH slice down the line 14% 29.0%±12.3 28.7%
BH slice crosscourt + approach 9% 54.8%±14.7 49.9%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 113 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 49% 42.3%±9.4 38.7%
BH slice through the middle 22% 57.1%±12.1 33.4%
BH slice down the line 14% 43.9%±13.6 34.0%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Jana Novotna's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 100 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 41% 65% / 66%
Body 24% 32% 54% / 57%
T 32% 27% 62% / 68%

403 normal · 22 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 35% 24% ▼ 60% / 66%
Body 26% 27% 44% / 56%
T 39% 49% ▲ 70% / 64%

318 normal · 78 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 56.0%±5.6 n=186 59% ▲
Body24% 48.7%±7.1 n=103 9% ▼
T32% 49.4%±6.4 n=136 32%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.22).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide33% 57.4%±6.5 n=129 33%
Body27% 44.6%±7.0 n=105 11% ▼
T41% 64.3%±5.7 n=162 56% ▲

Off equilibrium (p < 0.001): serve T more. Gap 7.5 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +1.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 1.18 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +3.2±6.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (291 repeats, 506 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 33 45% +0.8±10.3
1stAd courtT 92 34% −1.4±7.1
1stAd courtWide 145 40% +5.7±6.1
1stDeuce courtBody 41 42% −0.7±9.6
1stDeuce courtT 107 33% +1.2±6.6
1stDeuce courtWide 148 36% +1.5±5.9
2ndAd courtBody 53 54% −1.4±9.0
2ndAd courtT 28 42% −12.8±10.7
2ndAd courtWide 58 51% −2.3±8.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 46 53% −1.4±9.4
2ndDeuce courtT 17 59% +3.1±11.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 81 55% +1.3±7.8

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Jana Novotna's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH slice crosscourt used 5.2% · won 50% · −8.7±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.5% · won 49% · −9.7±11.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, mid used 12.1% · won 49% · +4.5±9.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (ad court) → FH slice through the middle, mid used 6.9% · won 48% · +3.4±11.1 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH slice through the middle, short used 5.8% · won 46% · +1.2±11.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice through the middle, mid used 7.7% · won 45% · +0.9±10.7 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH slice through the middle, mid used 6.9% · won 41% · −3.9±11.0 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt + approach used 3.7% · won 55% · +4.6±11.5 vs own baseline
  2. BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 4.3% · won 54% · +3.4±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. BH slice crosscourt → BH slice down the line used 7.8% · won 53% · +2.3±9.4 vs own baseline
  4. BH slice crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 8.2% · won 53% · +2.2±9.3 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 8.7% · won 52% · +1.5±9.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Jana Novotna wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle used 1.1% · won 55% · +6.8±13.0 vs own baseline · +26.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Martina Hingis (9/14)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt used 2.5% · won 50% · +1.7±10.8 vs own baseline · +11.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Martina Hingis (8/18), Steffi Graf (7/11)
  3. BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH slice down the line used 1.7% · won 48% · −0.3±11.9 vs own baseline · +5.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Martina Hingis (11/23)
  4. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 1.4% · won 48% · −0.5±12.4 vs own baseline · +5.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steffi Graf (9/19)
  5. BH slice down the line → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.9% · won 46% · −2.3±11.6 vs own baseline · −2.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steffi Graf (2/6), Martina Hingis (7/17)
  6. BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 2.4% · won 46% · −2.7±10.8 vs own baseline · −2.2 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH slice to their forehand · rally+8.6138
FH slice to the middle · return+5.8124
BH slice to their backhand · return +1+5.8122
BH slice to their backhand · return+5.1156
BH slice to their backhand · rally+4.2281

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−1.4262
T 1st serve · ad court−1.4125
FH to their backhand · rally−1.0216
FH to their backhand · serve +1−0.8152
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.2167

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Linda Fruhvirtova, Maja Chwalinska, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Linda Klimovicova, Nadia Podoroska

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Points at net35%
Chipped returns78%
Serve & volley33%
Backhand slice95%
BH down the line26%
FH down the line32%
Wide serves · deuce44%
T serves · ad41%
Avg rally length4.2
Point-ending shots23.8%
Run-around forehands6%
1st serve in61%
Drop shots / shot1.0%
T serves · deuce32%
Unforced errors / shot9.1%
Wide serves · ad33%
Forehand share47%
Through the middle20%
Deep returns12%

Plays most like

  1. Kirsten Flipkens 2013–2022 plan v
  2. Amelie Mauresmo 1999–2009 plan v
  3. Martina Navratilova 1981–1994 plan v
  4. Gabriela Sabatini 1988–1995 plan v
  5. Roberta Vinci 2012–2017 plan v
  6. Steffi Graf 1985–1999 plan v
  7. Taylor Townsend 2015–2026 plan v
  8. Conchita Martinez 1993–2003 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Kirsten Flipkens 2013–2022
  2. Roberta Vinci 2012–2017
  3. Taylor Townsend 2015–2026

Charted matches