Kitzbuhel · SF · Clay · 2 Aug 1998
Andrea Gaudenzi v Francisco Clavet
72–63 in points · Andrea Gaudenzi won
Why it went the way it did
Andrea Gaudenzi won 4.2 more points than Francisco Clavet relative to what the serve alone predicted. Francisco Clavet's biggest leaks: net execution −1.5, touch shot selection −1.4, serve 1st execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andrea Gaudenzi | Francisco Clavet | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −1.2 | −2.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.6 | −1.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.7 | +3.5 | +1.4 | +5.6 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +0.2 | +2.0 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +1.7 | −2.7 | −0.9 | −0.7 | +0.2 | +3.0 | +2.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −0.7 | −1.9 | −0.1 | −1.1 | +0.3 | −0.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.7 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −1.5 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −0.2 | −1.4 | −0.4 | −2.1 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.3 | +4.2 | −3.5 | +1.1 | −2.5 | −1.2 | +0.5 | −3.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Andrea Gaudenzi | Francisco Clavet | Net, Andrea | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.7 | +0.1 | +4.6 | |
| 2 | −5.3 | +0.1 | −5.4 | |
| 3 | +1.7 | −3.4 | +5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andrea Gaudenzi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 77% | 28% 57% | 20% 80% |
| 2 | 52% 64% | 5% 0% | 43% 33% |
| 3 | 63% 75% | 32% 67% | 5% 100% |
Set to set +0.40 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.99 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Francisco Clavet serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 40% | 29% 83% | 24% 40% |
| 2 | 30% 75% | 22% 50% | 48% 77% |
| 3 | 50% 20% | 20% 50% | 30% 100% |
Set to set −0.78 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −2.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andrea Gaudenzi
7.9 points left on the table across 363 shots 2.18 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Francisco Clavet
11.0 points left on the table across 350 shots 3.14 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.76 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts