RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 4 charted matches · 1995–1998

Andrea Gaudenzi

Shot expected value

The share of points Andrea Gaudenzi goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 137 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 56.7%±9.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 28% 47.8%±10.8 43.7%
BH down the line 17% 42.5%±12.4 46.4%
FH inside-out 9% 61.7%±13.9 51.8%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 116 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 42% 45.8%±9.9 48.0%
BH down the line 21% 43.8%±12.3 46.5%
BH through the middle 19% 37.5%±12.3 43.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 69 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 48.0%±12.0 52.7%
FH down the line 25% 57.6%±13.4 51.5%
BH crosscourt 14% 46.1%±15.0 49.1%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 59% 50% ▼ 68% / 73%
Body 18% 25% 65% / 63%
T 24% 25% 75% / 75%

131 normal · 4 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 36% 0% ▼ 71% / 73%
Body 25% 11% ▼ 65% / 63%
T 39% 89% ▲ 67% / 72%

111 normal · 9 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide59% 65.4%±7.5 n=79
Body18% 61.4%±10.9 n=24
T24% 62.8%±10.1 n=32

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.73).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide33% 67.5%±9.2 n=40
Body24% 63.3%±10.3 n=29
T43% 66.3%±8.6 n=51

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.77).

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 9 34% −3.4±12.4
1stAd courtT 22 20% −8.0±9.1
1stAd courtWide 65 43% +16.1±8.4
1stDeuce courtBody 23 43% +6.7±11.2
1stDeuce courtT 54 33% +7.7±8.4
1stDeuce courtWide 36 31% +3.4±9.3
2ndAd courtBody 8 47% −2.5±13.3
2ndAd courtT 5 48% −1.3±13.9
2ndAd courtWide 59 48% −0.6±8.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 20 47% −1.6±11.6
2ndDeuce courtT 38 51% +1.6±10.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 6 51% +3.1±13.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Andrea Gaudenzi's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 18.5% · won 51% · +6.1±11.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 16.9% · won 51% · +6.1±11.5 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 18.5% · won 38% · −6.9±11.0 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 8.1% · won 59% · +9.1±11.1 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 9.1% · won 55% · +4.2±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 9.1% · won 51% · +0.7±10.9 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 8.1% · won 48% · −2.0±11.3 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 7.4% · won 46% · −4.0±11.5 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Andrea Gaudenzi wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 60% · +5.6±12.6 vs own baseline · +20.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Thomas Muster (8/11)
  2. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 50% · −4.2±11.8 vs own baseline · −2.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Thomas Muster (7/19)
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 2.0% · won 47% · −7.4±12.1 vs own baseline · −9.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Thomas Muster (3/10), Francisco Clavet (5/11)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · rally+2.9170
BH to their forehand · rally+2.0122
FH to their forehand · rally+1.0122

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally+0.3126
FH to their backhand · rally+0.9228

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Charted matches