US Open · R128 · Hard · 1 Sep 1998
Todd Martin v Jeff Tarango
105–86 in points · Todd Martin won
Why it went the way it did
Todd Martin won 9.9 more points than Jeff Tarango relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jeff Tarango's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.2, serve 1st shot selection −1.0, forehand direction choices −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Todd Martin | Jeff Tarango | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | +0.9 | +6.2 | +6.8 | −0.8 | −1.0 | +0.3 | −1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.6 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.8 | +0.8 | −0.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.7 | −0.4 | −0.2 | +1.4 | +0.8 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −2.4 | −0.9 | +0.4 | −0.8 | −1.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −2.2 | −2.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −0.6 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.9 | +0.6 |
| Net | −0.3 | −0.2 | +2.5 | +2.1 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.7 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −1.3 |
| All shots | −0.6 | −0.6 | +5.5 | +4.3 | −2.7 | −2.8 | −0.1 | −5.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Todd Martin | Jeff Tarango | Net, Todd | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.9 | −0.2 | +1.1 | |
| 2 | +2.6 | −4.0 | +6.5 | |
| 3 | +0.8 | −1.4 | +2.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Todd Martin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 81% | 13% 40% | 48% 79% |
| 2 | 38% 88% | 14% 33% | 48% 80% |
| 3 | 44% 86% | 16% 60% | 41% 69% |
Set to set +0.52 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.75 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jeff Tarango serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 75% | 19% 86% | 49% 67% |
| 2 | 32% 50% | 24% 17% | 44% 64% |
| 3 | 18% 83% | 35% 67% | 47% 63% |
Set to set −1.12 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Todd Martin
8.3 points left on the table across 254 shots 3.27 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
Jeff Tarango
9.3 points left on the table across 237 shots 3.92 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×5; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts