New Haven · F · Hard · 6 Sep 1998
Steffi Graf v Jana Novotna
63–41 in points · Steffi Graf won
Why it went the way it did
Steffi Graf won 10.9 more points than Jana Novotna relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jana Novotna's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.5, forehand execution −2.6, return shot selection −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Steffi Graf | Jana Novotna | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | −0.5 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
| Return | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.6 | +0.6 | −2.0 | −1.3 | −2.7 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +2.5 | +2.6 | +6.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −2.6 | −2.5 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −2.6 | −0.7 | −2.9 | +0.5 | −3.5 | +2.4 | −0.7 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.3 | +1.6 | +0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.8 | +0.2 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +1.8 | −0.3 | +2.9 | +4.4 | ±0.0 | −6.3 | −0.1 | −6.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Steffi Graf | Jana Novotna | Net, Steffi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.8 | −2.4 | +3.1 | |
| 2 | +3.6 | −4.1 | +7.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Steffi Graf serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 56% | 9% 67% | 38% 54% |
| 2 | 53% 100% | 11% 100% | 37% 57% |
Set to set +0.03 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jana Novotna serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% 60% | 31% 27% | 42% 53% |
| 2 | 33% 40% | 40% 33% | 27% 50% |
Set to set −0.47 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −2.80 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Steffi Graf
5.4 points left on the table across 195 shots 2.75 per 100 shots
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
Jana Novotna
6.7 points left on the table across 205 shots 3.25 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts