Grand Slam Cup · F · Hard · 4 Oct 1998
Marcelo Rios v Andre Agassi
154–155 in points · Marcelo Rios won
Why it went the way it did
Andre Agassi won 0.7 more points than Marcelo Rios relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marcelo Rios's biggest leaks: serve 1st shot selection −2.9, backhand execution −2.9, forehand execution −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marcelo Rios | Andre Agassi | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | −2.9 | +2.9 | +0.5 | +0.3 | −2.8 | −1.6 | −4.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −1.2 | −0.6 | −1.8 | +0.1 | −1.5 | +0.3 | −1.1 |
| Return | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.0 | −2.4 | +0.8 | +0.5 | −1.3 | −0.1 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +0.8 | −2.4 | −0.7 | +1.2 | +0.5 | +2.2 | +4.0 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.9 | −2.9 | −2.3 | +0.2 | −0.8 | +4.2 | +3.6 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.8 | +0.5 | −1.3 | −0.1 | −2.3 | −2.8 | −5.3 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | +2.6 | +2.9 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −1.2 |
| All shots | +1.2 | −5.2 | −0.8 | −4.8 | +2.2 | −7.0 | +0.6 | −4.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Marcelo Rios | Andre Agassi | Net, Marcelo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | |
| 2 | −4.4 | +0.9 | −5.3 | |
| 3 | +3.5 | −4.6 | +8.1 | |
| 4 | −4.4 | +2.6 | −7.0 | |
| 5 | +1.5 | −2.9 | +4.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marcelo Rios serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 42% | 6% 100% | 55% 71% |
| 2 | 57% 31% | – | 43% 80% |
| 3 | 38% 83% | 6% 100% | 56% 89% |
| 4 | 56% 65% | 2% 100% | 41% 47% |
| 5 | 64% 79% | – | 36% 25% |
Set to set −1.37 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andre Agassi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 50% | 18% 80% | 39% 73% |
| 2 | 43% 89% | 5% 100% | 52% 64% |
| 3 | 55% 59% | 3% 100% | 43% 65% |
| 4 | 53% 69% | – | 47% 93% |
| 5 | 59% 47% | 3% 0% | 38% 50% |
Set to set −1.08 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.89 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marcelo Rios
13.5 points left on the table across 468 shots 2.89 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH crosscourt ×6; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.46 pts
Andre Agassi
7.8 points left on the table across 429 shots 1.83 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts