Berlin · F · Clay · 14 May 2000
Conchita Martinez v Amanda Coetzer
63–36 in points · Conchita Martinez won
Why it went the way it did
Conchita Martinez won 11.0 more points than Amanda Coetzer relative to what the serve alone predicted. Amanda Coetzer's biggest leaks: touch shot selection −1.7, net execution −1.5, slice shot selection −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Conchita Martinez | Amanda Coetzer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +1.9 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +6.0 | +2.8 | +9.8 | −0.1 | +4.0 | +1.4 | +5.3 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.2 | +3.1 | +3.5 | −0.3 | +0.5 | +3.6 | +3.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −4.0 | +1.8 | −2.2 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −0.4 | −1.9 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.3 | +2.5 | +3.2 | +0.4 | +0.2 | −1.5 | −0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −1.7 | +0.3 | −1.3 |
| All shots | +1.8 | +1.1 | +13.1 | +16.0 | −0.5 | +2.0 | +3.6 | +5.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Conchita Martinez | Amanda Coetzer | Net, Conchita | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +7.2 | +2.2 | +5.0 | |
| 2 | +8.9 | +2.9 | +6.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Conchita Martinez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 90% | 25% 29% | 39% 55% |
| 2 | 45% 57% | 19% 33% | 35% 82% |
Within sets +2.86 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Amanda Coetzer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 33% | 70% 14% | – |
| 2 | 14% 33% | 59% 54% | 27% 0% |
Within sets −3.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Conchita Martinez
8.3 points left on the table across 382 shots 2.17 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×13; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.40 pts
Amanda Coetzer
9.2 points left on the table across 401 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.69 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts