RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 9 charted matches · 1993–2003

Conchita Martinez

Archetype: Chip returner · Slice-heavy

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 56.1% ±3.4 raw 53.2% · tour 56.3% · 647 points
Return points won 45.3% ±3.5 raw 41.7% · tour 43.7% · 557 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.23 ±0.15 better than 88% of WTA · raw +0.22
Shot selection −0.92 ±0.32 better than 4% of WTA · raw −0.92
Execution +1.03 ±0.87 better than 93% of WTA · raw +0.99
Points left on the table 2.70 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 34% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,752 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Conchita Martinez goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 245 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 23% 39.1%±9.1 40.4%
BH crosscourt 20% 40.7%±9.7 47.6%
BH slice down the line 16% 35.1%±10.3 31.7%
BH slice through the middle 14% 41.6%±10.9 34.4%
BH through the middle 10% 43.7%±12.2 43.3%
FH inside-out 7% 54.2%±13.7 52.5%
FH inside-in 7% 53.1%±13.7 55.6%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 156 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 29% 43.5%±10.0 38.7%
BH crosscourt 21% 50.2%±11.3 47.9%
BH slice down the line 17% 40.9%±11.9 34.0%
BH slice through the middle 15% 31.8%±11.7 33.4%
BH through the middle 7% 43.7%±14.7 42.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 146 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 40% 48.7%±9.3 44.9%
FH crosscourt 38% 49.8%±9.5 46.7%
FH through the middle 23% 43.9%±11.2 41.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 128 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 30% 56.1%±10.7 52.7%
FH down the line 30% 61.1%±10.5 52.2%
FH through the middle 13% 51.8%±13.5 45.8%
BH through the middle 10% 43.2%±14.2 46.2%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +11 How much less varied Conchita Martinez's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 81 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 67% ▲ 58% / 66%
Body 20% 25% 52% / 57%
T 35% 8% ▼ 63% / 68%

322 normal · 12 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 54% 61% 55% / 66%
Body 14% 10% 59% / 56%
T 32% 29% 57% / 64%

242 normal · 69 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 55.2%±6.0 n=155 46%
Body20% 47.3%±8.4 n=66 5% ▼
T34% 56.7%±6.8 n=113 49% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.18).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide55% 50.7%±5.8 n=172 54% ▼
Body14% 53.6%±9.7 n=42 0% ▼
T31% 54.5%±7.3 n=97 46% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.65).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.51 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +3.4±4.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (246 repeats, 381 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 37 50% +5.6±10.0
1stAd courtT 38 33% −2.2±9.4
1stAd courtWide 111 34% −0.9±6.5
1stDeuce courtBody 47 41% −1.3±9.2
1stDeuce courtT 72 36% +3.8±7.8
1stDeuce courtWide 86 28% −6.3±6.8
2ndAd courtBody 15 59% +3.9±12.1
2ndAd courtT 19 50% −5.0±11.7
2ndAd courtWide 40 57% +3.7±9.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 31 56% +1.8±10.4
2ndDeuce courtT 17 57% +1.0±11.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 35 53% −1.3±10.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Conchita Martinez's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.5% · won 58% · +0.9±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt used 6.5% · won 52% · −5.0±11.0 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 5.0% · won 50% · −6.7±11.7 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 6.5% · won 50% · −6.8±11.0 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → BH slice down the line used 6.0% · won 48% · −8.6±11.2 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, mid used 13.6% · won 43% · +7.1±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 14.1% · won 30% · −6.2±10.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.7% · won 50% · +3.5±9.4 vs own baseline
  2. BH slice down the line → FH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 50% · +3.4±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. BH slice crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.5% · won 48% · +1.9±10.1 vs own baseline
  4. BH slice crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.9% · won 48% · +1.7±11.0 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.9% · won 48% · +1.3±9.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Conchita Martinez wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH slice down the line → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 53% · +5.8±12.5 vs own baseline · +14.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Martina Hingis (4/7)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 51% · +3.3±11.3 vs own baseline · +5.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Mary Pierce (2/6), Amanda Coetzer (8/12)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 50% · +2.3±13.0 vs own baseline · +4.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Amanda Coetzer (8/9)
  4. BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 1.1% · won 49% · +1.2±12.3 vs own baseline · +3.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steffi Graf (10/20)
  5. BH slice down the line → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.2% · won 46% · −0.9±12.0 vs own baseline · +0.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Mary Pierce (2/6), Martina Hingis (6/7)
  6. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt used 0.9% · won 46% · −1.4±12.8 vs own baseline · +3.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH slice to their backhand · rally+1.1245
FH to their forehand · rally+0.3261
FH to their backhand · serve +1−0.1132
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.1172
FH to their backhand · rally−0.5331

Most exposed to

BH slice to their backhand · rally−2.9179
FH to their backhand · rally−1.4215
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.2128
FH to their forehand · rally+0.5239
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.7166

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Daria Kasatkina, Tatjana Maria, Karolina Muchova, Yulia Putintseva, Petra Martic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Backhand slice61%
Chipped returns37%
Avg rally length5.3
Run-around forehands20%
1st serve in69%
Wide serves · ad55%
FH down the line35%
Wide serves · deuce46%
Points at net9%
Drop shots / shot1.8%
Serve & volley0%
BH down the line19%
T serves · deuce34%
T serves · ad31%
Unforced errors / shot8.6%
Point-ending shots19.0%
Forehand share50%
Through the middle19%
Deep returns15%

Plays most like

  1. Steffi Graf 1985–1999 plan v
  2. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario 1988–2001 plan v
  3. Gabriela Sabatini 1988–1995 plan v
  4. Francesca Schiavone 2006–2017 plan v
  5. Svetlana Kuznetsova 2004–2021 plan v
  6. Chris Evert 1979–1989 plan v
  7. Daria Saville 2015–2024 plan v
  8. Kirsten Flipkens 2013–2022 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Daria Saville 2015–2024
  2. Kirsten Flipkens 2013–2022
  3. Daria Kasatkina 2015–2026

Charted matches