Roland Garros · SF · Clay · 9 Jun 2000
Gustavo Kuerten v Juan Carlos Ferrero
164–168 in points · Gustavo Kuerten won
Why it went the way it did
Juan Carlos Ferrero won 4.7 more points than Gustavo Kuerten relative to what the serve alone predicted. Gustavo Kuerten's biggest leaks: forehand execution −6.1, slice shot selection −4.3, touch execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Gustavo Kuerten | Juan Carlos Ferrero | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.4 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.8 |
| Return | +0.7 | +1.0 | +2.1 | +3.8 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −4.1 | −4.9 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +4.4 | −6.1 | −1.8 | +0.4 | +5.7 | +2.2 | +8.3 |
| Backhand | +0.9 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +1.2 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +2.6 | +2.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −4.3 | +0.1 | −4.2 | −0.1 | −3.6 | −0.2 | −4.0 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.4 | −1.2 | −0.8 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −2.1 | −1.6 | −0.3 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +1.8 | +1.5 | −7.0 | −3.8 | +1.0 | +0.6 | −0.7 | +1.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Gustavo Kuerten | Juan Carlos Ferrero | Net, Gustavo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.9 | −0.9 | +1.8 | |
| 2 | +2.4 | +6.0 | −3.6 | |
| 3 | −7.1 | −0.1 | −7.1 | |
| 4 | +1.1 | −3.6 | +4.6 | |
| 5 | −1.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Gustavo Kuerten serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 67% | 10% 100% | 45% 67% |
| 2 | 50% 37% | 5% 100% | 45% 71% |
| 3 | 16% 83% | 3% 0% | 81% 47% |
| 4 | 34% 70% | 3% 0% | 62% 67% |
| 5 | 54% 68% | 3% 100% | 43% 60% |
Set to set +1.04 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.24 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Juan Carlos Ferrero serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 72% | 5% 0% | 47% 67% |
| 2 | 51% 74% | 3% 0% | 46% 59% |
| 3 | 45% 90% | 5% 0% | 50% 73% |
| 4 | 63% 48% | – | 38% 60% |
| 5 | 50% 75% | 6% 100% | 44% 71% |
Set to set +0.33 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Gustavo Kuerten
14.0 points left on the table across 664 shots 2.10 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.70 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
Juan Carlos Ferrero
16.1 points left on the table across 689 shots 2.33 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts