RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 30 charted matches · 2000–2009

Juan Carlos Ferrero

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.9% ±2.6 raw 62.1% · tour 63.4% · 2,649 points
Return points won 39.1% ±2.8 raw 35.9% · tour 36.6% · 2,708 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.06 ±0.07 better than 71% of ATP · raw +0.05
Shot selection +0.05 ±0.09 better than 59% of ATP · raw +0.04
Execution +0.23 ±0.42 better than 77% of ATP · raw +0.08
Tactical adaptability +0.03 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 30 matches
Adaptation speed +0.13 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.05 ±0.53 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 2,288 shots · better than 69% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.21 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 91% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 14,661 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Juan Carlos Ferrero goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,125 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 50% 45.2%±3.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 20% 43.7%±5.2 43.7%
BH down the line 16% 51.6%±5.8 46.4%
FH inside-out 6% 51.0%±8.9 51.8%
FH inside-in 3% 44.5%±10.9 54.7%
BH slice through the middle 2% 25.7%±11.5 35.1%
FH through the middle 1% 47.3%±13.7 45.2%
BH slice crosscourt 1% 45.3%±14.5 42.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 807 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 48% 42.9%±4.0 48.0%
BH through the middle 20% 39.2%±6.0 43.8%
BH down the line 19% 45.9%±6.2 46.5%
FH inside-out 4% 53.1%±11.6 52.6%
FH inside-in 3% 47.3%±12.7 54.3%
BH slice through the middle 3% 26.9%±11.4 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 2% 36.1%±12.5 42.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 708 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 36% 47.7%±5.0 46.6%
FH down the line 33% 41.6%±5.1 44.7%
FH through the middle 25% 38.9%±5.7 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 3% 13.4%±8.5 24.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 704 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 27% 60.8%±5.5 52.7%
FH down the line 21% 56.9%±6.2 51.5%
BH crosscourt 15% 45.5%±7.3 49.1%
FH through the middle 14% 52.4%±7.5 47.0%
BH through the middle 13% 48.6%±7.7 46.8%
BH down the line 6% 51.1%±10.4 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 2% 75.3%±12.5 70.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Juan Carlos Ferrero's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 249 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 38% 48% ▲ 67% / 73%
Body 7% 9% 61% / 63%
T 56% 43% ▼ 75% / 75%

1,300 normal · 67 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 58% 64% 65% / 73%
Body 7% 7% 64% / 63%
T 35% 29% 67% / 72%

1,072 normal · 182 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide38% 60.8%±3.4 n=521 32% ▼
Body7% 60.2%±7.3 n=93 0% ▼
T55% 63.7%±2.8 n=753 68% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.43).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide59% 60.8%±2.9 n=738 53% ▼
Body7% 64.7%±7.3 n=87 0% ▼
T34% 62.6%±3.7 n=429 47% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.56).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.35 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.5±3.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,253 repeats, 1,308 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 58 39% +1.8±8.5
1stAd courtT 273 26% −2.5±4.1
1stAd courtWide 410 28% +0.3±3.5
1stDeuce courtBody 81 27% −9.7±6.9
1stDeuce courtT 306 20% −5.0±3.6
1stDeuce courtWide 394 28% +0.9±3.6
2ndAd courtBody 88 48% −1.2±7.6
2ndAd courtT 86 52% +3.1±7.6
2ndAd courtWide 361 46% −2.7±4.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 193 54% +4.7±5.5
2ndDeuce courtT 200 51% +1.6±5.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 213 47% −0.6±5.3

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Juan Carlos Ferrero's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 2.2% · won 59% · −5.6±8.9 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 59% · −5.8±8.8 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 58% · −6.5±8.7 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 59% · −5.4±7.3 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 57% · −7.3±9.0 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 9.7% · won 47% · +9.0±5.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 3.3% · won 53% · +14.8±8.4 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.0% · won 53% · +14.4±8.7 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 5.2% · won 43% · +5.0±7.0 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 4.8% · won 43% · +4.1±7.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.0% · won 55% · +9.8±8.3 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 52% · +6.2±6.4 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.9% · won 51% · +5.8±6.3 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → BH down the line used 1.0% · won 56% · +10.9±10.1 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 4.9% · won 50% · +4.6±5.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Juan Carlos Ferrero wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.7% · won 60% · +12.6±9.1 vs own baseline · +13.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (8/14)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 57% · +9.8±8.1 vs own baseline · +7.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (13/26), Guillermo Coria (5/8)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 61% · +13.3±10.0 vs own baseline · +14.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (6/8)
  4. BH crosscourt return, mid → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 60% · +13.0±10.7 vs own baseline · +22.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (6/10), Roger Federer (7/10)
  5. Wide serve → BH crosscourt return, mid → BH down the line used 0.8% · won 56% · +8.2±8.8 vs own baseline · +8.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (5/12), Lleyton Hewitt (12/23)
  6. BH down the line → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.2% · won 60% · +12.7±12.3 vs own baseline · +23.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their forehand · return +1+2.7124
FH to their backhand · return+2.1172
BH to the middle · return +1+1.6185
FH to their forehand · return+0.8217
FH to the middle · rally+0.7502

Most exposed to

BH slice to the middle · return−2.0181
FH to their backhand · serve +1−1.8418
BH slice to their backhand · return−1.3135
BH to the middle · rally−1.0564
BH slice to their backhand · rally−0.7261

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet, Nick Kyrgios, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

T serves · deuce55%
Wide serves · ad59%
Avg rally length4.5
FH down the line32%
Run-around forehands21%
BH down the line21%
1st serve in61%
Drop shots / shot1.3%
Forehand share52%
Serve & volley0%
Through the middle22%
T serves · ad34%
Points at net7%
Unforced errors / shot8.2%
Wide serves · deuce38%
Chipped returns7%
Point-ending shots19.5%
Backhand slice5%
Deep returns17%

Plays most like

  1. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014 plan v
  2. David Nalbandian 2002–2012 plan v
  3. Gael Monfils 2005–2026 plan v
  4. Cameron Norrie 2015–2026 plan v
  5. David Goffin 2013–2025 plan v
  6. Jack Draper 2022–2026 plan v
  7. Flavio Cobolli 2022–2026 plan v
  8. Marcelo Rios 1995–2001 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Cameron Norrie 2015–2026
  2. Jack Draper 2022–2026
  3. Flavio Cobolli 2022–2026

Charted matches