Madrid Masters · SF · Hard · 19 Oct 2002
Fabrice Santoro v Jiri Novak
44–62 in points · Jiri Novak won
Why it went the way it did
Jiri Novak won 9.9 more points than Fabrice Santoro relative to what the serve alone predicted. Fabrice Santoro's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −11.5, return shot selection −2.0, touch shot selection −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Fabrice Santoro | Jiri Novak | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −1.2 | −0.8 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −1.0 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Return | +0.2 | −2.0 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +3.0 | +3.0 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.7 | +0.3 | +3.0 | +3.1 | +6.4 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +2.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.4 |
| Slice | +0.5 | −11.5 | +9.4 | −1.6 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −1.3 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.8 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.6 | −1.1 | −2.8 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.4 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +1.1 | −13.2 | +9.6 | −2.5 | +0.4 | +1.9 | +5.0 | +7.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Fabrice Santoro | Jiri Novak | Net, Fabrice | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.4 | +2.1 | −5.6 | |
| 2 | +0.9 | +5.2 | −4.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Fabrice Santoro serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 62% | 15% 0% | 35% 56% |
| 2 | 53% 44% | 3% 100% | 43% 54% |
Within sets +0.40 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jiri Novak serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 86% | 5% 0% | 64% 71% |
| 2 | 64% 67% | 7% 0% | 29% 75% |
Within sets +0.77 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Fabrice Santoro
6.9 points left on the table across 234 shots 2.93 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×5; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×6; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Jiri Novak
5.1 points left on the table across 246 shots 2.08 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts