RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 13 charted matches · 1996–2004

Jiri Novak

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.3% ±3.1 raw 60.8% · tour 63.4% · 1,114 points
Return points won 39.1% ±3.3 raw 35.8% · tour 36.6% · 1,087 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.07 ±0.09 better than 40% of ATP · raw −0.07
Shot selection −0.11 ±0.18 better than 39% of ATP · raw −0.12
Execution −0.16 ±0.53 better than 59% of ATP · raw −0.31
Tactical adaptability +0.02 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 13 matches
Adaptation speed +0.05 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.47 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 65% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 5,777 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Jiri Novak goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 276 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 23% 52.5%±9.0 52.7%
BH through the middle 20% 42.4%±9.4 46.8%
FH through the middle 17% 49.9%±10.0 47.0%
FH down the line 16% 46.5%±10.3 51.5%
BH down the line 11% 46.2%±11.7 48.3%
BH crosscourt 9% 45.1%±12.3 49.1%
FH down the line + approach 4% 74.5%±12.9 70.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 265 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 49.9%±7.1 46.6%
FH down the line 29% 43.2%±8.3 44.7%
FH through the middle 28% 42.4%±8.3 41.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 261 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 50% 49.0%±6.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 30% 37.9%±8.1 43.7%
BH down the line 18% 50.4%±10.1 46.4%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 184 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 46.1%±8.2 48.0%
BH through the middle 26% 43.8%±9.9 43.8%
BH down the line 19% 51.4%±11.1 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 42.0%±14.4 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 5% 30.1%±13.8 35.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Jiri Novak's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 113 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 56% 61% 66% / 73%
Body 8% 0% ▼ 62% / 63%
T 36% 39% 65% / 75%

537 normal · 28 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 48% 71% / 73%
Body 13% 19% 59% / 63%
T 43% 33% ▼ 63% / 72%

430 normal · 85 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide57% 60.3%±4.3 n=320 51% ▼
Body8% 62.3%±9.3 n=43 0% ▼
T36% 59.3%±5.3 n=202 49% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.84).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 59.5%±5.0 n=233 56% ▲
Body14% 60.0%±8.1 n=70 1% ▼
T41% 60.1%±5.2 n=212 43% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.99).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.31 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.8±4.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (437 repeats, 617 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 18 36% −1.4±11.4
1stAd courtT 104 32% +4.4±6.7
1stAd courtWide 177 26% −1.1±5.0
1stDeuce courtBody 34 33% −3.9±9.7
1stDeuce courtT 111 23% −2.0±5.8
1stDeuce courtWide 183 26% −0.8±5.0
2ndAd courtBody 68 55% +5.5±8.3
2ndAd courtT 28 50% +0.3±10.8
2ndAd courtWide 113 45% −3.3±6.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 70 54% +4.7±8.2
2ndDeuce courtT 79 46% −3.9±7.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 76 52% +4.2±8.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Jiri Novak's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line + approach used 4.1% · won 69% · +6.4±9.5 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 63% · +0.9±10.4 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 62% · −0.7±11.0 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 61% · −1.4±11.2 vs own baseline
  5. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 61% · −1.8±11.0 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line, mid used 4.1% · won 52% · +10.0±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 3.8% · won 48% · +6.1±11.6 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 10.2% · won 46% · +3.4±8.5 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 9.7% · won 44% · +1.4±8.7 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 6.8% · won 44% · +1.4±9.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 6.5% · won 53% · +6.2±8.0 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → BH down the line used 3.3% · won 55% · +8.6±10.1 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.4% · won 53% · +5.7±8.1 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 51% · +4.0±10.2 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 2.6% · won 50% · +3.2±10.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Jiri Novak wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 56% · +9.2±12.3 vs own baseline · +16.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (7/11)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 55% · +8.0±12.2 vs own baseline · +17.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (6/11)
  3. FH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 55% · +8.2±12.5 vs own baseline · +20.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (4/8)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.0% · won 51% · +3.8±8.8 vs own baseline · +5.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (13/28), Andre Agassi (3/6)
  5. BH down the line → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 54% · +7.1±12.7 vs own baseline · +14.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Thomas Johansson (3/6)
  6. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 51% · +4.1±10.3 vs own baseline · +5.0 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · serve +1+1.3202
FH to their backhand · return+1.0126
BH to their backhand · return+0.6132
BH to the middle · return+0.4188
FH to the middle · return+0.4200

Most exposed to

BH slice to their backhand · rally−2.7139
FH to their backhand · rally−1.3303
FH to their forehand · rally−0.8367
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.7304
FH to their backhand · serve +1−0.5123

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Daniel Evans, Lorenzo Musetti, Andy Murray, Jaume Munar, Pablo Carreno Busta

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · deuce57%
FH down the line36%
Avg rally length4.4
BH down the line24%
1st serve in64%
Points at net14%
T serves · ad41%
Forehand share52%
Chipped returns13%
Through the middle24%
Serve & volley2%
Point-ending shots21.7%
Unforced errors / shot8.8%
Drop shots / shot0.8%
Wide serves · ad45%
Backhand slice11%
Run-around forehands7%
T serves · deuce36%
Deep returns10%

Plays most like

  1. Thomas Johansson 1996–2005 plan v
  2. Magnus Norman 2000–2001 plan v
  3. Valentin Vacherot 2024–2026 plan v
  4. Richard Gasquet 2002–2025 plan v
  5. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002 plan v
  6. Brad Gilbert 1987–1994 plan v
  7. Karue Sell 2024–2025 plan v
  8. Andy Murray 2005–2024 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Valentin Vacherot 2024–2026
  2. Karue Sell 2024–2025
  3. Karen Khachanov 2015–2026

Charted matches