Miami Masters · R16 · Hard · 25 Mar 2003
Andre Agassi v Mark Philippoussis
86–72 in points · Andre Agassi won
Why it went the way it did
Andre Agassi won 11.4 more points than Mark Philippoussis relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mark Philippoussis's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.3, slice shot selection −2.6, backhand execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andre Agassi | Mark Philippoussis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −1.1 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.5 | −2.7 | −2.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.5 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.4 | +2.6 | +3.4 | +0.2 | +1.8 | −5.3 | −3.3 |
| Backhand | +0.6 | −0.8 | +3.5 | +3.3 | +0.3 | +0.2 | −1.6 | −1.2 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.6 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −2.6 | +0.5 | −2.0 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| All shots | +1.4 | −0.6 | +3.5 | +4.4 | +1.0 | −0.6 | −7.5 | −7.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Andre Agassi | Mark Philippoussis | Net, Andre | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.5 | +1.1 | −0.5 | |
| 2 | −0.9 | −4.0 | +3.1 | |
| 3 | +4.8 | −4.1 | +8.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andre Agassi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 40% | 5% 0% | 45% 67% |
| 2 | 52% 79% | 4% 100% | 44% 67% |
| 3 | 39% 86% | 6% 100% | 56% 90% |
Set to set +2.84 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mark Philippoussis serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 58% | 7% 0% | 48% 62% |
| 2 | 46% 55% | 4% 100% | 50% 67% |
| 3 | 58% 36% | – | 42% 60% |
Set to set −0.61 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andre Agassi
4.0 points left on the table across 270 shots 1.50 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Mark Philippoussis
6.0 points left on the table across 281 shots 2.14 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts