Rome Masters · F · Clay · 11 May 2003
Felix Mantilla v Roger Federer
125–118 in points · Felix Mantilla won
Why it went the way it did
Roger Federer won 0.2 more points than Felix Mantilla relative to what the serve alone predicted. Felix Mantilla's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.4, forehand execution −4.4, backhand shot selection −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Felix Mantilla | Roger Federer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.8 | −0.4 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +0.9 | −2.0 | −1.9 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −1.1 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.9 | +1.2 | +0.2 | +1.2 | −1.1 | +1.5 | +1.6 |
| Forehand | −1.1 | +4.3 | −4.4 | −1.2 | +0.8 | +8.6 | −7.3 | +2.2 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | −1.9 | −0.8 | −3.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −2.3 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −5.4 | +1.6 | −3.5 | −0.1 | −5.2 | −0.7 | −6.0 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −1.4 | −1.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +1.1 | +0.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +1.1 |
| All shots | −2.2 | −4.6 | −1.1 | −8.0 | +1.5 | +3.1 | −12.4 | −7.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Felix Mantilla | Roger Federer | Net, Felix | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.7 | −1.3 | −0.4 | |
| 2 | −2.1 | −5.3 | +3.2 | |
| 3 | −4.2 | −1.3 | −2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Felix Mantilla serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% 59% | 24% 73% | 16% 71% |
| 2 | 69% 55% | 24% 71% | 7% 50% |
| 3 | 58% 58% | 31% 50% | 11% 57% |
Set to set +0.62 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Roger Federer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 80% | 11% 50% | 47% 59% |
| 2 | 67% 50% | 14% 33% | 19% 25% |
| 3 | 45% 67% | 32% 47% | 23% 64% |
Set to set +0.64 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Felix Mantilla
14.1 points left on the table across 509 shots 2.78 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×20; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.02 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
Roger Federer
13.1 points left on the table across 563 shots 2.33 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.85 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts