ATP · Right-handed · 723 charted matches · 1998–2021
Roger Federer
Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand
Against an average opponent
Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.
Value per 100 shots
Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 300,264 shots.
Shot expected value
The share of points Roger Federer goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 20,638 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 26% | 47.0%±1.1 | 47.6% |
| BH through the middle | 19% | 43.8%±1.3 | 43.7% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 16% | 46.2%±1.4 | 42.5% |
| BH down the line | 11% | 46.7%±1.8 | 46.4% |
| BH slice through the middle | 7% | 40.1%±2.1 | 35.1% |
| FH inside-out | 6% | 53.1%±2.2 | 51.8% |
| FH inside-in | 5% | 52.4%±2.6 | 54.7% |
| BH slice down the line | 4% | 46.5%±2.8 | 37.1% |
Return +1: drive to your backhand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 13,258 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 25% | 47.7%±1.4 | 46.9% |
| BH through the middle | 21% | 46.6%±1.5 | 43.0% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 17% | 44.6%±1.7 | 40.9% |
| BH down the line | 13% | 46.8%±2.0 | 44.2% |
| BH slice through the middle | 8% | 38.9%±2.4 | 32.6% |
| BH slice down the line | 4% | 40.5%±3.3 | 33.3% |
| FH inside-out | 4% | 54.5%±3.7 | 51.7% |
| FH inside-in | 3% | 58.1%±3.9 | 53.6% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle
position worth 51% to the average player · 12,134 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 27% | 56.1%±1.4 | 52.7% |
| FH down the line | 19% | 55.4%±1.7 | 51.5% |
| FH through the middle | 17% | 48.1%±1.8 | 47.0% |
| BH through the middle | 9% | 48.0%±2.4 | 46.8% |
| BH crosscourt | 7% | 46.9%±2.9 | 49.1% |
| FH down the line + approach | 4% | 73.0%±3.2 | 70.5% |
| BH down the line | 3% | 49.2%±4.0 | 48.3% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 3% | 50.6%±4.1 | 47.0% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 11,646 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 42% | 48.1%±1.2 | 46.6% |
| FH down the line | 25% | 44.4%±1.5 | 44.7% |
| FH through the middle | 22% | 41.5%±1.6 | 41.5% |
| FH down the line + approach | 4% | 72.4%±3.5 | 69.3% |
| FH slice through the middle | 3% | 26.8%±4.1 | 24.5% |
| FH slice crosscourt | 1% | 29.8%±5.5 | 30.9% |
| FH slice down the line | 1% | 29.5%±5.6 | 25.6% |
| FH through the middle + approach | 1% | 63.3%±9.0 | 56.9% |
Serve under pressure
Pressure predictability index +3 How much less varied Roger Federer's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 3431 break-point first serves.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 53% | 76% / 73% |
| Body | 8% | 5% | 68% / 63% |
| T | 47% | 42% | 81% / 75% |
30,566 normal · 777 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 56% | 52% | 78% / 73% |
| Body | 6% | 4% | 64% / 63% |
| T | 38% | 44% | 76% / 72% |
25,778 normal · 2,654 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 70.2%±0.6 n=14,400 | 41% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 67.0%±1.6 n=2,391 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 70.3%±0.6 n=14,552 | 59% ▲ |
Off equilibrium (p = 0.002): serve T more. Gap 0.3 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 56% | 69.4%±0.6 n=15,893 | 69% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 61.2%±2.0 n=1,618 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 38% | 68.3%±0.7 n=10,921 | 31% ▼ |
Off equilibrium (p < 0.001): serve wide more. Gap 0.9 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.
Exploitability 0.46 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.
Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.1±0.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (29,498 repeats, 28,833 switches.)
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 2,163 | 39% | +2.1±1.7 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 6,491 | 33% | +5.3±1.0 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 10,135 | 32% | +4.4±0.8 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 3,064 | 37% | +0.6±1.4 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 9,607 | 30% | +4.6±0.8 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 7,869 | 31% | +3.4±0.9 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 2,760 | 51% | +1.5±1.6 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 1,620 | 51% | +1.4±2.0 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 7,576 | 51% | +2.4±0.9 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 4,927 | 50% | +0.6±1.2 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 5,844 | 52% | +1.8±1.1 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 2,153 | 49% | +1.2±1.8 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Roger Federer's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 67% · −4.4±2.1 vs own baseline
- T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 61% · −9.5±2.0 vs own baseline
- Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.0% · won 59% · −11.9±2.3 vs own baseline
- Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.6% · won 60% · −11.3±2.0 vs own baseline
Return
- vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.4% · won 52% · +11.8±2.2 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 2.1% · won 51% · +11.2±2.3 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, mid used 3.8% · won 48% · +7.8±1.7 vs own baseline
- vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.6% · won 49% · +9.1±2.1 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.4% · won 49% · +8.3±2.2 vs own baseline
Rally, consecutive own shots
- FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 58% · +9.0±2.8 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.9% · won 56% · +6.3±2.3 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 53% · +3.5±1.8 vs own baseline
- FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 53% · +3.3±2.2 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.3% · won 52% · +3.0±2.1 vs own baseline
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Roger Federer wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- FH down the line + approach → BH lob through the middle → Smash crosscourt used 0.1% · won 84% · +32.9±5.0 vs own baseline · +1.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andy Murray (5/8), Novak Djokovic (7/8)
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line + approach used 0.2% · won 73% · +21.8±4.3 vs own baseline · +4.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nikolay Davydenko (5/8), Xavier Malisse (5/8)
- FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line + approach used 0.1% · won 74% · +22.6±4.9 vs own baseline · +4.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gael Monfils (4/6), Richard Gasquet (4/6)
- FH down the line + approach → BH lob through the middle → Smash down the line used 0.1% · won 81% · +30.0±5.8 vs own baseline · +4.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Stan Wawrinka (5/7), Andy Murray (6/6)
- Wide serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line + approach used 0.1% · won 74% · +22.4±5.3 vs own baseline · +1.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nikolay Davydenko (5/8), Andy Roddick (4/6)
- FH down the line + approach → BH through the middle → BH volley down the line used 0.1% · won 72% · +21.2±5.6 vs own baseline · +12.4 vs tour on the same sequence
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| BH drop shot to their forehand · serve +1 | +7.5 | 228 |
| BH drop shot to their forehand · return +1 | +6.5 | 167 |
| Smash to the middle · rally | +6.3 | 360 |
| FH drop shot to their backhand · rally | +6.0 | 269 |
| BH volley to their forehand · serve +1 | +4.9 | 670 |
Most exposed to
| BH lob to their forehand · rally | −2.0 | 160 |
| FH slice to the middle · rally | −0.9 | 797 |
| Body 2nd serve · deuce court | −0.5 | 4,887 |
| Body 1st serve · deuce court | −0.3 | 4,193 |
| FH slice to the middle · serve +1 | −0.2 | 140 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Hubert Hurkacz
Tactical fingerprint
Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.
| Chipped returns | 35% | |
| Wide serves · ad | 56% | |
| Run-around forehands | 27% | |
| Point-ending shots | 27.4% | |
| Backhand slice | 30% | |
| Points at net | 15% | |
| Wide serves · deuce | 46% | |
| 1st serve in | 62% | |
| Through the middle | 26% | |
| T serves · deuce | 46% | |
| BH down the line | 21% | |
| Forehand share | 54% | |
| Unforced errors / shot | 10.3% | |
| Serve & volley | 10% | |
| T serves · ad | 38% | |
| Avg rally length | 3.8 | |
| Drop shots / shot | 1.2% | |
| FH down the line | 29% | |
| Deep returns | 22% |
Plays most like
- Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2007–2022 plan v
- Grigor Dimitrov 2009–2026 plan v
- Ivan Ljubicic 2003–2011 plan v
- Tommy Haas 1996–2017 plan v
- Stan Wawrinka 2006–2026 plan v
- Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026 plan v
- Dominic Thiem 2011–2024 plan v
- James Blake 2002–2011 plan v
Closest from another era
- Joao Fonseca 2024–2026
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 2024–2026
- Ivan Lendl 1979–1994
Charted matches
- Lorenzo Sonego v Roger Federer W Wimbledon R16 · Grass · 5 Jul 2021
- Cameron Norrie v Roger Federer W Wimbledon R32 · Grass · 3 Jul 2021
- Richard Gasquet v Roger Federer W Wimbledon R64 · Grass · 1 Jul 2021
- Hubert Hurkacz v Roger Federer L Wimbledon QF · Grass · 1 Jul 2021
- Roger Federer v Adrian Mannarino W Wimbledon R128 · Grass · 29 Jun 2021
- Roger Federer v Dominik Koepfer Roland Garros R32 · Clay · 5 Jun 2021
- Marin Cilic v Roger Federer W Roland Garros R64 · Clay · 2 Jun 2021
- Denis Istomin v Roger Federer W Roland Garros R128 · Clay · 31 May 2021
- Roger Federer v Daniel Evans W Doha R16 · Hard · 10 Mar 2021
- Roger Federer v Novak Djokovic L Australian Open SF · Hard · 30 Jan 2020
- Roger Federer v Tennys Sandgren W Australian Open QF · Hard · 28 Jan 2020
- Roger Federer v Marton Fucsovics W Australian Open R16 · Hard · 26 Jan 2020