Roland Garros · QF · Clay · 3 Jun 2003
Kim Clijsters v Conchita Martinez
67–44 in points · Kim Clijsters won
Why it went the way it did
Kim Clijsters won 11.7 more points than Conchita Martinez relative to what the serve alone predicted. Conchita Martinez's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −6.7, forehand execution −1.8, backhand execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kim Clijsters | Conchita Martinez | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Return | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +3.1 | +2.7 | −0.3 | −1.0 | +1.0 | −0.3 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +1.2 | −2.4 | −0.6 | +0.9 | +2.7 | −1.8 | +1.8 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.4 | +2.7 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −1.7 | −1.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.6 | +1.5 | −1.0 | −0.5 | −6.7 | +2.5 | −4.8 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.6 |
| All shots | +0.8 | −1.2 | +6.9 | +6.4 | +0.4 | −3.9 | −1.8 | −5.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Kim Clijsters | Conchita Martinez | Net, Kim | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.5 | −1.0 | +4.4 | |
| 2 | +3.0 | −4.3 | +7.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kim Clijsters serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 79% 55% | 11% 0% | 11% 67% |
| 2 | 72% 78% | – | 28% 57% |
Within sets +0.73 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Conchita Martinez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 18% | 11% 100% | 48% 31% |
| 2 | 55% 63% | 7% 0% | 38% 27% |
Within sets −2.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kim Clijsters
6.4 points left on the table across 260 shots 2.44 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.69 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH crosscourt ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
Conchita Martinez
7.7 points left on the table across 254 shots 3.04 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH drop shot crosscourt ×2; BH drop shot down the line rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts