Davis Cup World Group QF · RR · Grass · 15 Jul 2005
Lleyton Hewitt v Guillermo Coria
136–121 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Lleyton Hewitt won 5.0 more points than Guillermo Coria relative to what the serve alone predicted. Guillermo Coria's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.1, serve 1st execution −1.3, serve 2nd execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Lleyton Hewitt | Guillermo Coria | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | −1.0 | −3.3 | −3.8 | +0.4 | −0.7 | −1.3 | −1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.3 | −1.0 | +1.5 | +0.8 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −1.4 |
| Return | +0.8 | +0.5 | +6.1 | +7.5 | +1.5 | −0.1 | +2.5 | +3.9 |
| Forehand | +1.3 | +5.0 | +0.8 | +7.1 | +0.4 | +2.8 | +0.5 | +3.8 |
| Backhand | +1.9 | +2.7 | +3.1 | +7.7 | +1.0 | +1.4 | +4.2 | +6.7 |
| Slice | +0.8 | −2.0 | −1.3 | −2.5 | +0.6 | −4.1 | +0.1 | −3.4 |
| Net | +1.1 | +0.9 | −0.5 | +1.4 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +2.7 | +4.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.8 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +1.6 |
| All shots | +6.7 | +4.7 | +7.2 | +18.6 | +4.6 | +0.7 | +8.3 | +13.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Lleyton Hewitt | Guillermo Coria | Net, Lleyton | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +8.7 | +9.4 | −0.7 | |
| 2 | +7.4 | ±0.0 | +7.3 | |
| 3 | −4.2 | +3.2 | −7.3 | |
| 4 | +6.7 | +1.0 | +5.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Lleyton Hewitt serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 59% | – | 48% 67% |
| 2 | 41% 36% | – | 59% 81% |
| 3 | 56% 50% | – | 44% 27% |
| 4 | 55% 75% | – | 45% 54% |
Set to set −1.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.24 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Guillermo Coria serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 63% | 2% 100% | 53% 61% |
| 2 | 43% 60% | 3% 100% | 54% 26% |
| 3 | 60% 75% | – | 40% 63% |
| 4 | 61% 36% | – | 39% 29% |
Set to set −0.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.24 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Lleyton Hewitt
6.4 points left on the table across 484 shots 1.33 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×5; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.20 pts
Guillermo Coria
8.9 points left on the table across 500 shots 1.78 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts