RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 19 charted matches · 2002–2005

Guillermo Coria

Archetype: Grinder · Ad-court T server

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.6% ±2.8 raw 59.1% · tour 63.4% · 1,888 points
Return points won 41.2% ±2.9 raw 39.8% · tour 36.6% · 1,878 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.01 ±0.16 better than 60% of ATP · raw +0.01
Shot selection −0.12 ±0.21 better than 37% of ATP · raw −0.13
Execution +0.97 ±0.53 better than 95% of ATP · raw +0.79
Tactical adaptability −0.08 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 19 matches
Adaptation speed −0.12 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.54 ±0.59 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 2,052 shots · better than 11% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.43 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 70% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 11,639 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Guillermo Coria goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,022 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 44% 51.6%±3.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 23% 45.0%±5.1 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 49.0%±6.2 46.4%
FH inside-in 6% 51.9%±9.4 54.7%
FH inside-out 4% 48.1%±10.7 51.8%
BH slice crosscourt 3% 36.5%±11.4 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 2% 39.6%±12.3 35.1%
FH through the middle 2% 50.1%±12.7 45.2%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 726 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 39% 50.2%±4.7 48.0%
BH through the middle 21% 47.3%±6.2 43.8%
BH down the line 21% 50.5%±6.3 46.5%
FH inside-in 6% 59.8%±10.4 54.3%
BH slice crosscourt 4% 37.4%±11.0 42.1%
FH inside-out 4% 64.3%±11.3 52.6%
BH slice through the middle 3% 30.8%±12.2 35.1%
FH through the middle 2% 50.7%±14.5 46.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 691 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 37% 48.3%±5.0 46.6%
FH down the line 26% 50.0%±5.9 44.7%
FH through the middle 25% 51.5%±6.0 41.5%
FH slice crosscourt 5% 23.9%±9.8 30.9%
FH slice through the middle 4% 22.5%±10.4 24.5%
FH drop shot down the line 2% 48.4%±13.5 49.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 518 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 24% 50.2%±6.9 51.5%
FH through the middle 22% 51.8%±7.0 47.0%
FH crosscourt 22% 60.6%±7.0 52.7%
BH through the middle 11% 47.9%±9.3 46.8%
BH crosscourt 11% 54.4%±9.5 49.1%
BH down the line 5% 46.1%±12.0 48.3%
FH drop shot down the line 4% 57.2%±13.0 56.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Guillermo Coria's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 183 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 48% 64% / 73%
Body 10% 10% 71% / 63%
T 37% 42% 68% / 75%

917 normal · 50 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 55% 56% 62% / 73%
Body 12% 13% 63% / 63%
T 33% 32% 63% / 72%

766 normal · 133 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide53% 59.9%±3.5 n=512 53%
Body10% 65.6%±7.0 n=95 23% ▲
T37% 57.5%±4.1 n=360 24% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.14).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide55% 56.5%±3.6 n=492 49% ▼
Body12% 60.6%±6.8 n=111 5% ▼
T33% 57.7%±4.5 n=296 46% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.61).
Optimal mix: +0.1 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.13 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.0±3.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (871 repeats, 957 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 41 35% −1.6±9.3
1stAd courtT 195 26% −2.5±4.8
1stAd courtWide 289 35% +7.9±4.4
1stDeuce courtBody 53 45% +7.9±9.0
1stDeuce courtT 260 30% +4.8±4.4
1stDeuce courtWide 271 31% +3.8±4.4
2ndAd courtBody 40 55% +6.1±9.8
2ndAd courtT 42 50% +0.4±9.7
2ndAd courtWide 281 52% +3.6±4.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 97 53% +3.5±7.3
2ndDeuce courtT 161 50% +0.5±6.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 127 48% ±0.0±6.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Guillermo Coria's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 2.4% · won 64% · +2.4±9.6 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH inside-in used 2.0% · won 62% · +0.5±10.1 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 62% · +0.4±9.7 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 61% · −0.2±9.8 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 57% · −4.5±10.2 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 9.6% · won 56% · +14.0±6.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 4.1% · won 55% · +13.0±8.9 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 3.0% · won 52% · +10.4±9.9 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.7% · won 50% · +8.2±10.2 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, deep used 2.4% · won 50% · +8.2±10.5 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 57% · +7.0±7.0 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 4.1% · won 56% · +5.5±6.6 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 2.3% · won 57% · +7.1±8.3 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 55% · +5.1±7.6 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → FH down the line used 1.1% · won 57% · +6.3±10.4 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Guillermo Coria wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → BH crosscourt return, mid → FH inside-in used 0.3% · won 62% · +11.8±11.8 vs own baseline · +15.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Fernando Gonzalez (6/6)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.0% · won 56% · +5.4±8.6 vs own baseline · +10.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (9/17), Juan Carlos Ferrero (7/9)
  3. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 58% · +7.4±11.2 vs own baseline · +16.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (8/10), Agustin Calleri (6/7)
  4. FH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 56% · +5.7±10.5 vs own baseline · +13.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (1/7), Gustavo Kuerten (3/6)
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 0.7% · won 55% · +4.8±9.8 vs own baseline · +9.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Juan Carlos Ferrero (2/6), Marat Safin (4/8)
  6. Wide serve → FH crosscourt return, mid → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 56% · +6.0±11.7 vs own baseline · +14.1 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their forehand · rally+2.5491
BH to their backhand · serve +1+1.6257
FH to their forehand · serve +1+1.5258
FH to their forehand · return+1.3180
BH to the middle · serve +1+1.2161

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · return−2.8292
BH to the middle · return−2.7331
FH to their forehand · return−2.7243
FH to their backhand · return−2.6222
BH to their backhand · serve +1−2.2154

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Ugo Humbert, Miomir Kecmanovic, Casper Ruud, Zhizhen Zhang, Bernard Tomic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Avg rally length5.3
1st serve in68%
Wide serves · deuce53%
Drop shots / shot2.8%
Wide serves · ad55%
BH down the line23%
Through the middle26%
FH down the line32%
Run-around forehands20%
Forehand share52%
Deep returns25%
Serve & volley2%
Points at net9%
Chipped returns9%
T serves · ad33%
Backhand slice9%
T serves · deuce37%
Point-ending shots16.2%
Unforced errors / shot6.5%

Plays most like

  1. Jaume Munar 2018–2026 plan v
  2. Bernabe Zapata Miralles 2019–2024 plan v
  3. Novak Djokovic 2005–2026 plan v
  4. Carlos Berlocq 2011–2019 plan v
  5. Pablo Andujar 2013–2023 plan v
  6. Roberto Bautista Agut 2013–2026 plan v
  7. Pablo Carreno Busta 2015–2026 plan v
  8. Jenson Brooksby 2021–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Jaume Munar 2018–2026
  2. Bernabe Zapata Miralles 2019–2024
  3. Roberto Bautista Agut 2013–2026

Charted matches