US Open · R128 · Hard · 28 Aug 2006
Michaella Krajicek v Maria Sharapova
32–57 in points · Maria Sharapova won
Why it went the way it did
Maria Sharapova won 10.7 more points than Michaella Krajicek relative to what the serve alone predicted. Michaella Krajicek's biggest leaks: return execution −1.9, serve 1st execution −1.8, slice execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Michaella Krajicek | Maria Sharapova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | −0.1 | −1.8 | −1.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +3.4 | +3.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −1.9 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.3 | +2.2 | +2.7 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +2.4 | +3.8 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.5 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +2.5 | +2.7 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.3 | −2.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.6 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −0.5 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +10.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Michaella Krajicek | Maria Sharapova | Net, Michaella | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.6 | +3.6 | −4.2 | |
| 2 | +0.1 | +6.6 | −6.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Michaella Krajicek serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 54% | 4% 100% | 50% 57% |
| 2 | 41% 27% | – | 59% 50% |
Set to set +1.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Maria Sharapova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 88% | 6% 0% | 47% 88% |
| 2 | 40% 75% | 10% 0% | 50% 100% |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Michaella Krajicek
2.3 points left on the table across 98 shots 2.38 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.14 pts
Maria Sharapova
2.8 points left on the table across 120 shots 2.36 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.20 pts