RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2006–2017

Michaella Krajicek

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 57.7% ±4.0 raw 55.9% · tour 56.3% · 356 points
Return points won 38.7% ±4.1 raw 31.6% · tour 43.7% · 288 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Michaella Krajicek goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 72 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 33% 44.4%±12.3 52.7%
BH crosscourt 29% 37.0%±12.4 50.9%
FH through the middle 18% 42.9%±14.2 45.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 69 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 46% 47.2%±11.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 23% 40.7%±13.5 43.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 67 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 46% 47.7%±11.5 46.7%
FH down the line 22% 42.8%±13.8 44.9%
FH through the middle 21% 27.2%±12.6 41.3%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 45 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 33% 48.0%±13.9 54.0%
BH through the middle 22% 44.2%±14.9 46.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +13 How much less varied Michaella Krajicek's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 52 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 73% ▲ 62% / 66%
Body 10% 9% 64% / 57%
T 51% 18% ▼ 68% / 68%

168 normal · 11 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 34% ▼ 63% / 66%
Body 15% 7% 46% / 56%
T 32% 59% ▲ 57% / 64%

133 normal · 41 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide42% 53.6%±8.0 n=75
Body10% 67.6%±11.2 n=17
T49% 58.3%±7.5 n=87

Off equilibrium (p = 0.045): serve body more. Gap 10.4 points per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide49% 56.9%±7.6 n=85
Body13% 48.0%±11.3 n=23
T38% 52.4%±8.4 n=66

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.31).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +8.9±6.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (111 repeats, 232 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 36 41% −2.7±10.0
1stAd courtT 31 29% −6.6±9.6
1stAd courtWide 24 36% +1.4±10.7
1stDeuce courtBody 32 42% −1.0±10.3
1stDeuce courtT 31 27% −4.9±9.4
1stDeuce courtWide 48 27% −6.8±8.3
2ndAd courtBody 24 49% −5.9±11.2
2ndAd courtT 5 50% −5.0±13.9
2ndAd courtWide 14 43% −10.2±12.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 23 55% +0.9±11.2
2ndDeuce courtT 7 54% −2.5±13.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 7 44% −10.2±13.4

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Michaella Krajicek wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 43% · +4.3±12.8 vs own baseline · +1.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Tatiana Golovin (4/8)

Charted matches