Rome Masters · SF · Clay · 12 May 2007
Fernando Gonzalez v Filippo Volandri
56–38 in points · Fernando Gonzalez won
Why it went the way it did
Fernando Gonzalez won 8.0 more points than Filippo Volandri relative to what the serve alone predicted. Filippo Volandri's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.6, backhand execution −1.1, touch execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Fernando Gonzalez | Filippo Volandri | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.6 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Return | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +2.3 | −1.5 | +1.3 | +0.1 | +2.3 | −0.7 | +1.7 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.5 | +2.1 | +2.6 | +0.5 | +0.7 | −1.1 | +0.1 |
| Slice | +0.6 | −2.4 | +0.6 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −0.1 | −1.7 |
| Net | −0.5 | +0.8 | +1.6 | +1.8 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.6 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.8 | −0.9 |
| All shots | +1.5 | +1.4 | +4.0 | +6.9 | +0.5 | +1.4 | −2.9 | −1.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Fernando Gonzalez | Filippo Volandri | Net, Fernando | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.3 | +1.3 | +5.0 | |
| 2 | +0.7 | −2.3 | +3.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Fernando Gonzalez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 58% | 3% 100% | 33% 80% |
| 2 | 55% 83% | 5% 100% | 41% 56% |
Set to set +0.99 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Filippo Volandri serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 50% | 30% 50% | 20% 25% |
| 2 | 50% 55% | 27% 83% | 23% 40% |
Within sets −0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Fernando Gonzalez
5.0 points left on the table across 175 shots 2.87 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH inside-in ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.76 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Filippo Volandri
4.5 points left on the table across 179 shots 2.53 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts